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Week 1 •
Raymond James Stadium

Boise State7 @FINAL 34South Florida

0-0 MW Power rating: 6.7
0-0 American Power rating: 9.4

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
BOIS -8.5
PM Implied
BOIS -4.4
Blue Chip model
USF -6.6
Edge
+15.1USF
See details
◂ favors BOISfavors USF ▸Market: BOIS -8.5
USF
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
USF
no impact
USF
no impact
USF
5 BOIS5 USF10 BOIS10 USF15 BOIS15 USFModel: USF -6.6

Betting information

Spread
BOIS -8.5
Total
63.5
Odds implied score
BOIS 36.0 – 27.5 USF
Prediction markets
BOIS 67% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 10, 2026

South Florida defeated Boise State 34–7 to secure a comfortable win. South Florida covered by 35.5; Game went Under by 22.5. The market closed at Boise State -8.5 and the Blue Chip model made it South Florida -6.6 - a gap of 15.1 points toward South Florida, of which 13.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Boise State vs South Florida?

At kickoff, conditions at Raymond James Stadium were Clear, 83°F, heat index 92°F with winds of 10 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Boise State travels 2,156 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

A trip of this length is worth roughly two thirds of a point to the home team on the measured evidence.

South Florida won by 27 to secure a comfortable win.

South Florida covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 22.5 points.

How do Boise State and South Florida compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor South Florida (9.4) over Boise State (6.7) by 2.7 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. South Florida brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Boise State and South Florida?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

South Florida won and South Florida covered the spread.

Conditions

as of August 28, 2025 Game-time

Clear

83°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity82%
Wind10 mph NW
Gusts13 mph
Heat index92°F
Wind map for Boise State at South Florida: aerial view of Raymond James Stadium, wind from the NW at 9.6 mph, gusting to 13.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 1
Kickoff (local)
05:30 PM EDT
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Capacity
69,218
Elevation
72 ft
Surface
Unknown

Travel and rest

Boise StateAway South FloridaHome
This week2,156 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total2,156 miles0 miles
Body clock15:3017:30
RestSeason openerSeason opener

Other games this week