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Week 1 •
Spartan Stadium

Western Michigan6 @FINAL 23Michigan State

0-0 MAC Power rating: -9.4
0-0 Big Ten Power rating: 2.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MSU -18.5
PM Implied
MSU -15.9
Blue Chip model
MSU -13.6
Edge
-4.9WMU
See details
◂ favors WMUfavors MSU ▸Market: MSU -18.5
12.2 › MSU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MSU
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 WMU2 MSU4 WMU4 MSUModel: MSU -13.6

Betting information

Spread
MSU -18.5
Total
49.5
Odds implied score
WMU 15.5 – 34.0 MSU
Prediction markets
MSU 93% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 10, 2026

Michigan State defeated Western Michigan 23–6 to secure a comfortable win. Western Michigan covered by 1.5; Game went Under by 20.5. The market closed at Michigan State -18.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Michigan State -13.6 - a gap of 4.9 points toward Western Michigan, of which 4.1 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Western Michigan vs Michigan State?

At kickoff, conditions at Spartan Stadium were Clear, 57°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Western Michigan travels 65 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Michigan State won by 17 to secure a comfortable win.

Western Michigan covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 20.5 points.

How do Western Michigan and Michigan State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Michigan State (2.8) over Western Michigan (-9.4) by 12.2 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Michigan State brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Western Michigan and Michigan State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Michigan State won and Western Michigan covered the spread.

Conditions

as of August 29, 2025 Game-time

Clear

57°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity70%
Wind4 mph SE
Gusts9 mph
Wind map for Western Michigan at Michigan State: aerial view of Spartan Stadium, wind from the SE at 4.3 mph, gusting to 8.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 1
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM EDT
Venue
Spartan Stadium
Capacity
75,005
Elevation
866 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Western MichiganAway Michigan StateHome
This week65 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total65 miles0 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
RestSeason openerSeason opener

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