Purdue defeated Ball State 31–0 in a dominant performance. Purdue covered by 14.5; Game went Under by 19.5.
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Positive adjustment = favours home team
At kick-off, conditions at Ross-Ade Stadium were Partly cloudy, 72.9°F, Feels Like 76.5°F with winds of 3.6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
72.9°F
Ball State's offense managed only 203 total yards and was shut out, with quarterback Kiael Kelly throwing for 87 yards and rushing for 63. The Cardinals missed two field goals (45 and 29 yards) and converted just 4 of 13 third downs, highlighting inefficiency in scoring positions.
Despite the loss, Ball State did not commit any turnovers and had only three penalties for 18 yards, showing good discipline under new coach Mike Uremovich. This could be a foundation for improvement in future games.
Ball State held a significant time of possession edge (over 7 minutes more than Purdue), but failed to turn that into points due to poor third-down conversion rate (4/13) and missed field goals, indicating a need for better execution in critical situations.
The defense allowed 433 yards but forced no turnovers. While they held Purdue to 31 points, missed tackles in the second half contributed to big plays, suggesting improvement needed in tackling consistency.
Ball State travels to face Auburn next, a significant step up in competition. The Cardinals will need to improve offensive efficiency, especially in the red zone, and maintain discipline to compete against a stronger opponent.
Ball State travels 81 miles to this game, a short road trip.
Purdue won by 31 in a dominant performance.
Purdue covered the spread comfortably.
The total went Under by 19.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Purdue (-3.6) over Ball State (-19.1) by 15.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Purdue brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Purdue won and Purdue covered the spread.
