Week 1
Ross-Ade Stadium

Ball State0 @FINAL 31Purdue , Week 1, Aug 30, 2025

0-0 MAC Power rating: -19.1
0-0 Big Ten Power rating: -3.6

How did the line hold up?

Market line
PUR -16.5
PM Implied
PUR -11.7
Blue Chip model
PUR -17.4
Edge
+0.9PUR
See details
◂ favors BALLfavors PUR ▸Market: PUR -16.5
15.5 › PUR
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1 BALL1 PUR2 BALL2 PURModel: PUR -17.4

Betting information

Spread
PUR -16.5
Total
50.5
Odds implied score
BALL 17.0 – 33.5 PUR
Prediction markets
PUR 85% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 10, 2026

Purdue defeated Ball State 31–0 in a dominant performance. Purdue covered by 14.5; Game went Under by 19.5. The market closed at Purdue -16.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Purdue -17.4. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Ball State vs Purdue?

Ball State

Offensive struggles and missed opportunities

Ball State's offense managed only 203 total yards and was shut out, with quarterback Kiael Kelly throwing for 87 yards and rushing for 63. The Cardinals missed two field goals (45 and 29 yards) and converted just 4 of 13 third downs, highlighting inefficiency in scoring positions.

Discipline and ball security positives

Despite the loss, Ball State did not commit any turnovers and had only three penalties for 18 yards, showing good discipline under new coach Mike Uremovich. This could be a foundation for improvement in future games.

Time of possession advantage not capitalized

Ball State held a significant time of possession edge (over 7 minutes more than Purdue), but failed to turn that into points due to poor third-down conversion rate (4/13) and missed field goals, indicating a need for better execution in critical situations.

Defensive resilience but tackling issues

The defense allowed 433 yards but forced no turnovers. While they held Purdue to 31 points, missed tackles in the second half contributed to big plays, suggesting improvement needed in tackling consistency.

Next game at Auburn presents major challenge

Ball State travels to face Auburn next, a significant step up in competition. The Cardinals will need to improve offensive efficiency, especially in the red zone, and maintain discipline to compete against a stronger opponent.

What were the weather conditions for Ball State vs Purdue?

At kickoff, conditions at Ross-Ade Stadium were Partly cloudy, 73°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Ball State travels 81 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Purdue won by 31 in a dominant performance.

Purdue covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 19.5 points.

How do Ball State and Purdue compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Purdue (-3.6) over Ball State (-19.1) by 15.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Purdue brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Purdue won and Purdue covered the spread.

Conditions

as of August 30, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

73°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity58%
Wind4 mph NNE
Gusts4 mph
Wind map for Ball State at Purdue: aerial view of Ross-Ade Stadium, wind from the NNE at 3.6 mph, gusting to 4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 1
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM EDT
Venue
Ross-Ade Stadium
Capacity
61,441
Elevation
663 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure Ball StateAway PurdueHome
This week81 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total81 miles0 miles
Body clock12:0012:00
RestSeason openerSeason opener