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Week 1 •
M. M. Roberts Stadium

Mississippi State34 @FINAL 17Southern Miss

0-0 SEC Power rating: 10.7
0-0 Sun Belt Power rating: -6.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MSST -11.5
PM Implied
MSST -9.7
Blue Chip model
MSST -14.0
Edge
-2.5MSST
See details
◂ favors MSSTfavors USM ▸Market: MSST -11.5
‹ 17.0 MSST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
USM
no impact
no impact
no impact
USM
1 MSST1 USM2 MSST2 USMModel: MSST -14.0

Betting information

Spread
MSST -11.5
Total
59.5
Odds implied score
MSST 35.5 – 24.0 USM
Prediction markets
MSST 84% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 10, 2026

Mississippi State defeated Southern Miss 34–17 to secure a comfortable win. Mississippi State covered by 5.5; Game went Under by 8.5. The market closed at Mississippi State -11.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Mississippi State -14.0, an edge of 2.5 points toward Mississippi State.

What were the weather conditions for Mississippi State vs Southern Miss?

At kickoff, conditions at M. M. Roberts Stadium were Sunny, 87°F, heat index 95°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Mississippi State travels 150 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Mississippi State won by 17 to secure a comfortable win.

Mississippi State covered the spread.

The total went Under by 8.5 points.

How do Mississippi State and Southern Miss compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Mississippi State (10.7) over Southern Miss (-6.3) by 17.0 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Southern Miss faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Southern Miss brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Mississippi State and Southern Miss?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Mississippi State won and Mississippi State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of August 30, 2025 Game-time

Sunny

87°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity63%
Wind5 mph NE
Gusts8 mph
Heat index95°F
Wind map for Mississippi State at Southern Miss: aerial view of M. M. Roberts Stadium, wind from the NE at 4.7 mph, gusting to 7.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 1
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CDT
Venue
M. M. Roberts Stadium
Capacity
36,000
Elevation
233 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Mississippi StateAway Southern MissHome
This week150 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total150 miles0 miles
Body clock11:0011:00
RestSeason openerSeason opener

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