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Week 1 •
FBC Mortgage Stadium

Jacksonville State10 @FINAL 17UCF

0-0 CUSA Power rating: -11.2
0-0 Big 12 Power rating: 5.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UCF -16.5
PM Implied
UCF -13.7
Blue Chip model
UCF -20.2
Edge
+3.7UCF
See details
◂ favors JXSTfavors UCF ▸Market: UCF -16.5
16.7 › UCF
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
UCF
no impact
no impact
no impact
UCF
2 JXST2 UCF4 JXST4 UCFModel: UCF -20.2

Betting information

Spread
UCF -16.5
Total
53.5
Odds implied score
JXST 18.5 – 35.0 UCF
Prediction markets
UCF 90% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 10, 2026

UCF defeated Jacksonville State 17–10 in a one-score game. Jacksonville State covered by 9.5; Game went Under by 26.5. The market closed at UCF -16.5 and the Blue Chip model made it UCF -20.2 - a gap of 3.7 points toward UCF, of which 2.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Jacksonville State vs UCF?

At kickoff, conditions at FBC Mortgage Stadium were Overcast, 82°F, heat index 91°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Jacksonville State travels 450 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Jacksonville State arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

UCF won by 7 in a one-score game.

Jacksonville State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 26.5 points.

How do Jacksonville State and UCF compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor UCF (5.5) over Jacksonville State (-11.2) by 16.7 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. UCF brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Jacksonville State and UCF?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

UCF won and Jacksonville State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of August 28, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

82°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity88%
Wind3 mph ESE
Gusts5 mph
Heat index91°F
Wind map for Jacksonville State at UCF: aerial view of FBC Mortgage Stadium, wind from the ESE at 2.7 mph, gusting to 4.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 1
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM EDT
Venue
FBC Mortgage Stadium
Capacity
44,206
Elevation
75 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Jacksonville StateAway UCFHome
This week450 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total450 miles0 miles
Body clock18:0019:00
RestSeason openerSeason opener

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