DraftKings · as of July 10, 2026
Florida State defeated Alabama 31–17 in a double-digit victory. Florida State covered by 27.5; Game went Under by 2.5. The market closed at Alabama -13.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Alabama -7.1 - a gap of 6.4 points toward Florida State, of which 5.4 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Alabama 10.4 points stronger on a neutral field.
Florida State rushed for 230 yards and 4.7 yards per carry, a massive improvement from their 2024 average of 89.9 yards per game, with quarterback Tommy Castellanos leading the way with 78 yards and a touchdown.
The Seminoles held Alabama to 87 rushing yards on 29 carries, forced three fourth-down stops, and limited the Crimson Tide to 6-of-17 on third-down conversions, showcasing a stout defensive performance.
Tommy Castellanos completed 9 of 14 passes for 152 yards and added 78 rushing yards, providing a dual-threat capability that kept Alabama's defense off balance.
Florida State defeated its first ranked opponent since the 2023 ACC championship game, ending a 2-10 season with a statement win that could propel them into the AP Top 25.
Florida State hosts East Texas A&M next Saturday, and the team's physical rushing attack and aggressive defense should give them a strong advantage against a likely overmatched opponent.
At kickoff, conditions at Doak Campbell Stadium were Cloudy, 80°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Cloudy
80°F
| Measure | AlabamaAway | Florida StateHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 270 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Bye week | Bye week |
| Season total | 270 miles | 0 miles |
| Body clock | 14:30 | 15:30 |
| Rest | Season opener | Season opener |
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