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Week 1 •
BBVA Compass Stadium

UNLV38 @FINAL 21Sam Houston

1-0 MW Power rating: -4.1
0-1 CUSA Power rating: -22.1

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UNLV -13.5
PM Implied
UNLV -6.6
Blue Chip model
UNLV -14.9
Edge
-1.4UNLV
See details
◂ favors UNLVfavors SHSU ▸Market: UNLV -13.5
‹ 18.0 UNLV
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
SHSU
no impact
SHSU
no impact
SHSU
1 UNLV1 SHSU2 UNLV2 SHSUModel: UNLV -14.9

Betting information

Spread
UNLV -13.5
Total
58.5
Odds implied score
UNLV 36.0 – 22.5 SHSU
Prediction markets
UNLV 75% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 10, 2026

UNLV defeated Sam Houston 38–21 to secure a comfortable win. UNLV covered by 3.5; Game went Over by 0.5. The market closed at UNLV -13.5 and the Blue Chip model made it UNLV -14.9, an edge of 1.4 points toward UNLV.

What are the key factors for UNLV vs Sam Houston?

Sam Houston

Slow Start Dooms Bearkats

Sam Houston fell behind 31-7 after three quarters, with their offense struggling to generate consistent drives until the fourth quarter. The early deficit proved insurmountable despite a late rally.

Late Offensive Explosion Shows Potential

The Bearkats scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns, including a 53-yard run by Landan Brown and a 59-yard pass from Mabry Mettauer to Tim Burns Jr., accounting for 112 of their 332 total yards. This suggests the offense can be explosive when it clicks.

Quarterback Rotation Continues

Hunter Watson (11/22, 101 yards, 1 rushing TD) and Mabry Mettauer (8/13, 86 yards, 1 passing TD) both saw action, indicating Sam Houston may still be searching for a consistent starter. This lack of stability could impact offensive rhythm moving forward.

Defense Struggles Against UNLV's Passing Attack

UNLV quarterback Anthony Colandrea completed 19 of 23 passes for 249 yards and two touchdowns, exposing Sam Houston's secondary. The Bearkats will need to tighten coverage to compete in future games.

Special Teams Miscue Costs Momentum

After scoring a late touchdown, Sam Houston recovered an onside kick but failed to capitalize, missing a chance to cut the deficit further. This missed opportunity highlights the need for better execution in critical moments.

What were the weather conditions for UNLV vs Sam Houston?

At kickoff, conditions at BBVA Compass Stadium were Partly cloudy, 82°F, heat index 91°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

UNLV travels 1,230 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

UNLV arrives with a 2-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

UNLV won by 17 to secure a comfortable win.

UNLV covered the spread.

The total went Over by 0.5 points.

How do UNLV and Sam Houston compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor UNLV (-4.1) over Sam Houston (-22.1) by 18.0 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Sam Houston faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Sam Houston brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on UNLV and Sam Houston?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

UNLV won and UNLV covered the spread.

Conditions

as of August 30, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

82°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity86%
Wind5 mph SE
Gusts8 mph
Heat index91°F
Wind map for UNLV at Sam Houston: aerial view of BBVA Compass Stadium, wind from the SE at 4.5 mph, gusting to 7.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 1
Kickoff (local)
08:30 PM CDT
Venue
BBVA Compass Stadium
Capacity
20,656
Elevation
56 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

UNLVAway Sam HoustonHome
This week1,230 miles67 miles
Last weekHome game1,355 miles
Season total1,230 miles1,287 miles
Body clock18:3020:30
Rest7 days7 days

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