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Week 1 •
Hard Rock Stadium

Notre Dame24 @FINAL 27Miami

0-0 Independent Power rating: 25.2
0-0 ACC Power rating: 20.6

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ND -2.5
PM Implied
ND -1.7
Blue Chip model
ND -2.5
Edge
0.0no edge
See details
◂ favors NDfavors MIA ▸Market: ND -2.5
‹ 4.6 ND
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MIA
no impact
MIA
no impact
MIA
1 ND1 MIA2 ND2 MIAModel: ND -2.5

Betting information

Spread
ND -2.5
Total
53.5
Odds implied score
ND 28.0 – 25.5 MIA
Prediction markets
ND 57% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 10, 2026

Miami defeated Notre Dame 27–24 in a nail-biter. Miami covered by 5.5; Game went Under by 2.5. The market closed at Notre Dame -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Notre Dame -2.5. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Notre Dame 4.6 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Notre Dame vs Miami?

Notre Dame

Strong Rally Falls Short

Notre Dame rallied from a 14-point deficit to tie the game at 24-24 with 3:21 left, but Miami responded with a game-winning field goal. The Irish showed resilience but couldn't close out the win.

QB Carr Shows Promise in First Start

CJ Carr completed 19 of 30 passes for 221 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, plus a rushing touchdown. His performance indicates potential for growth, but he needs to limit mistakes.

Defensive Struggles in Key Moments

The Irish defense allowed Miami to score on back-to-back possessions spanning halftime, giving up a 14-point lead. They also failed to stop Miami's game-winning drive, allowing 46 yards in 10 plays.

Historic Road Woes Continue

Notre Dame has now lost seven consecutive road games against Miami since 1977, highlighting a persistent challenge in this rivalry.

Next Up: Home vs. Texas A&M

Notre Dame hosts Texas A&M on Sept. 13. They will need to address defensive consistency and build on Carr's debut to bounce back against a tough opponent.

What were the weather conditions for Notre Dame vs Miami?

At kickoff, conditions at Hard Rock Stadium were Heavy rain, 79°F with winds of 5 mph. A 100% chance of rain with around 0.75 inches expected points to a genuinely wet field. Ball security and the kicking game are the exposures. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Notre Dame travels 1,138 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Miami won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Miami covered the spread.

The total went Under by 2.5 points.

How do Notre Dame and Miami compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Notre Dame (25.2) over Miami (20.6) by 4.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Miami faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Miami brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.6). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Notre Dame and Miami?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Miami won and Miami covered the spread.

Conditions

as of August 31, 2025 Game-time

Heavy rain

79°F

Rain100%
Precip0.75"
Humidity99%
Wind5 mph SE
Gusts7 mph
Wind map for Notre Dame at Miami: aerial view of Hard Rock Stadium, wind from the SE at 5.1 mph, gusting to 6.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 1
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM EDT
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Capacity
64,767
Elevation
43 ft
Surface
Unknown

Travel and rest

Notre DameAway MiamiHome
This week1,138 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total1,138 miles0 miles
Body clock19:3019:30
RestSeason openerSeason opener

Other games this week