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Week 1 •
TDECU Stadium

Stephen F. Austin0 @FINAL 27Houston

0-0 Southland Power rating: -26.4
0-0 Big 12 Power rating: 4.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
HOU -23.5
PM Implied
HOU -17.9
Blue Chip model
HOU -32.4
Edge
+8.9HOU
See details
◂ favors SFAfavors HOU ▸Market: HOU -23.5
30.6 › HOU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
HOU
no impact
no impact
no impact
HOU
5 SFA5 HOU10 SFA10 HOUModel: HOU -32.4

Betting information

Spread
HOU -23.5
Total
54.5
Odds implied score
SFA 15.5 – 39.0 HOU
Prediction markets
HOU 95% win chance (Kalshi)

ESPN Bet · as of July 10, 2026

Houston defeated Stephen F. Austin 27–0 to secure a comfortable win. Houston covered by 3.5; Game went Under by 27.5. The market closed at Houston -23.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Houston -32.4 - a gap of 8.9 points toward Houston, of which 7.9 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Stephen F. Austin vs Houston?

Stephen F. Austin

Offensive Struggles

SFA managed only 144 total yards, with 39 rushing yards and 105 passing yards. Quarterbacks Sam Vidlak and Gavin Rutherford combined for 17 of 33 passing, 105 yards, and two interceptions, indicating a lack of offensive rhythm and efficiency.

Defensive Pressure Overwhelmed

The Lumberjacks' offense was consistently pressured by Houston's defense, resulting in two sacks and a 3-of-16 third-down conversion rate. This inability to sustain drives limited scoring opportunities and kept the defense on the field.

Key Receivers Limited

Top receivers Kylon Harris (4 catches, 20 yards) and Jordan Nabors (3 catches, 21 yards) were held in check, with no big plays to spark the offense. The passing game lacked explosiveness and reliable targets.

Defensive Bright Spot

Despite the shutout, SFA's defense held Houston to 27 points, with the Cougars' offense not fully clicking. The Lumberjacks forced no turnovers but limited big plays, suggesting potential for improvement against a weaker opponent.

Next Game Outlook

SFA faces Abilene Christian on Sept. 6. To compete, they must improve offensive line protection, establish a run game, and reduce turnovers. Defensively, maintaining pressure and forcing turnovers will be key against a likely more balanced opponent.

What were the weather conditions for Stephen F. Austin vs Houston?

At kickoff, conditions at TDECU Stadium were Clear, 80°F with winds of 9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Stephen F. Austin travels 138 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Houston won by 27 to secure a comfortable win.

Houston covered the spread.

The total went Under by 27.5 points.

How do Stephen F. Austin and Houston compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Houston (4.2) over Stephen F. Austin (-26.4) by 30.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Houston brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Stephen F. Austin and Houston?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Houston won and Houston covered the spread.

Conditions

as of August 29, 2025 Game-time

Clear

80°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity91%
Wind9 mph S
Gusts12 mph
Wind map for Stephen F. Austin at Houston: aerial view of TDECU Stadium, wind from the S at 8.7 mph, gusting to 12.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 1
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM CDT
Venue
TDECU Stadium
Capacity
40,000
Elevation
52 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Stephen F. AustinAway HoustonHome
This week138 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total138 miles0 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
RestSeason openerSeason opener

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