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Week 1 •
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

Chattanooga10 @FINAL 45Memphis

0-0 SoCon Power rating: -21.0
0-0 American Power rating: 6.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MEM -30.5
PM Implied
MEM -20.7
Blue Chip model
MEM -29.8
Edge
-0.7UTC
See details
◂ favors UTCfavors MEM ▸Market: MEM -30.5
27.3 › MEM
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MEM
no impact
no impact
no impact
MEM
1 UTC1 MEM2 UTC2 MEMModel: MEM -29.8

Betting information

Spread
MEM -30.5
Total
55.5
Odds implied score
UTC 12.5 – 43.0 MEM
Prediction markets
MEM 97% win chance (Kalshi)

ESPN Bet · as of July 10, 2026

Memphis defeated Chattanooga 45–10 in a dominant performance. Memphis covered by 4.5; Game went Under by 0.5. The market closed at Memphis -30.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Memphis -29.8. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Chattanooga vs Memphis?

Chattanooga

Offensive Struggles Against FBS Opponent

Chattanooga managed only 10 points, with their lone touchdown coming in the fourth quarter after trailing 38-3. Quarterback Camden Orth completed 12 of 19 passes for 199 yards but threw two interceptions, highlighting issues with ball security and consistency against a stronger defense.

Defensive Vulnerabilities Exposed

The Mocs defense allowed 45 points, including 28 in the first half, and gave up big plays on the ground (two rushing touchdowns of 22+ yards) and through the air. They also surrendered a pick-six, indicating a need for improved tackling and coverage discipline.

Turnover Differential a Key Factor

Chattanooga committed two interceptions while forcing none, leading to a -2 turnover margin. This directly contributed to Memphis scoring 14 points off turnovers, including a defensive touchdown, which was a decisive factor in the lopsided score.

Late-Game Resilience Shows Promise

Despite the blowout, the Mocs scored a fourth-quarter touchdown and showed some fight late. This could be a building block for confidence, but they must sustain that effort for four quarters to compete in future games.

Memphis

Strong Offensive Performance

Memphis scored 45 points, with Brendon Lewis throwing for 199 yards and a touchdown, and rushing for 81 yards and another score. The Tigers have now scored 20+ points in 41 straight games, the longest active streak in the nation.

Balanced Running Game

Multiple running backs contributed, including Greg Desrosiers Jr. (8-yard TD), Sutton Smith (35-yard TD on first carry), and Frank Peasant (12-yard TD). This depth suggests a versatile ground attack that can be relied upon in future games.

Defensive Dominance

The defense held Chattanooga to 10 points, forced two interceptions (including a pick-six by DeMarco Ward), and limited the Mocs to just 3 points through three quarters. This bodes well for upcoming matchups.

Efficient Quarterback Play

Brendon Lewis completed 22 of 28 passes (78.6%) with only one interception, showing accuracy and decision-making. His dual-threat ability (81 rushing yards) adds a dynamic element to the offense.

Special Teams Contribution

Gianni Spetic made a 37-yard field goal, contributing to the early lead. Consistent special teams can be a key factor in close games.

What were the weather conditions for Chattanooga vs Memphis?

At kickoff, conditions at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium were Clear, 82°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Chattanooga travels 264 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Chattanooga arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Memphis won by 35 in a dominant performance.

Memphis covered the spread.

The total went Under by 0.5 points.

How do Chattanooga and Memphis compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Memphis (6.3) over Chattanooga (-21.0) by 27.3 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Memphis brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Chattanooga and Memphis?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Memphis won and Memphis covered the spread.

Conditions

as of August 30, 2025 Game-time

Clear

82°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity42%
Wind5 mph ENE
Gusts10 mph
Wind map for Chattanooga at Memphis: aerial view of Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, wind from the ENE at 4.7 mph, gusting to 9.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 1
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM CDT
Venue
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Capacity
50,000
Elevation
315 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

ChattanoogaAway MemphisHome
This week264 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total264 miles0 miles
Body clock16:3015:30
RestSeason openerSeason opener

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