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Week 1 •
McLane Stadium

Auburn38 @FINAL 24Baylor

0-0 SEC Power rating: 11.7
0-0 Big 12 Power rating: 8.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
AUB -1.5
PM Implied
Pick’em
Blue Chip model
AUB -1.0
Edge
+0.5BAY
See details
◂ favors AUBfavors BAY ▸Market: AUB -1.5
AUB
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
BAY
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 AUB1 BAY2 AUB2 BAYModel: AUB -1.0

Betting information

Spread
AUB -1.5
Total
57.5
Odds implied score
AUB 29.5 – 28.0 BAY
Prediction markets
BAY 51% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 10, 2026

Auburn defeated Baylor 38–24 in a double-digit victory. Auburn covered by 12.5; Game went Over by 4.5. The market closed at Auburn -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Auburn -1.0. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Auburn vs Baylor?

Auburn

Jackson Arnold's Dual-Threat Impact

Transfer QB Jackson Arnold rushed for 137 yards and 2 TDs, showing he can be a dynamic runner. His ability to extend plays and run effectively adds a new dimension to Auburn's offense, making them harder to defend.

Running Back Committee Success

With Jarquez Hunter gone, Jeremiah Cobb (74 yards, TD) and Damari Alston (84 yards, TD) each had 16 carries, proving the ground game remains strong. Their physical running style complements Arnold's mobility.

Special Teams Spark from Pleasant

Transfer Rayshawn Pleasant returned a kickoff 98 yards for a TD, giving Auburn a crucial momentum swing. His big-play ability on special teams could be a game-changer in close contests.

Defensive Resilience Despite Sluggish Start

Auburn's defense allowed 419 passing yards and 3 TDs but forced key fourth-down stops that led to 10 points. They showed ability to bend without breaking, which is promising for future games.

Next Up: Home Opener vs Ball State

Auburn faces Ball State on Sept. 6, a favorable matchup to build on their win. Expect continued emphasis on the run game and special teams, while the defense works on tightening coverage.

Baylor

Defensive Struggles and Missed Tackles

Baylor's defense struggled significantly, missing many tackles and allowing Auburn to rush for 307 yards, including 137 from quarterback Jackson Arnold. This defensive performance is a major concern heading into their next game against a ranked SMU team.

Fourth Down Conversion Issues

Baylor went 3-for-6 on fourth-down conversions, with two failed attempts leading directly to 10 Auburn points. While they scored two touchdowns on fourth down, the overall inefficiency in these critical situations hurt their momentum and field position.

Sawyer Robertson's Strong Passing Performance

Quarterback Sawyer Robertson completed 27 of 48 passes for 419 yards and three touchdowns, including two on fourth-down plays. His ability to move the ball through the air is a positive takeaway, but the offense needs to be more consistent to keep up with high-scoring opponents.

Upcoming Challenge Against No. 16 SMU

Baylor travels to Dallas to face former SWC rival No. 16 SMU next week. Given their defensive issues and the need to improve on fourth downs, this game will be a significant test of their ability to compete against a ranked opponent early in the season.

Need for Improved Run Defense

Allowing over 300 rushing yards, including big plays from Auburn's running backs and quarterback, highlights a critical weakness. Baylor must shore up its run defense to have a chance against SMU's offense, which will likely try to exploit this vulnerability.

What were the weather conditions for Auburn vs Baylor?

At kickoff, conditions at McLane Stadium were Overcast, 77°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Auburn travels 685 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Auburn won by 14 in a double-digit victory.

Auburn covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 4.5 points.

How do Auburn and Baylor compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Auburn (11.7) over Baylor (8.8) by 2.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Baylor faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Baylor brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Auburn and Baylor?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Auburn won and Auburn covered the spread.

Conditions

as of August 30, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

77°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity84%
Wind3 mph NNE
Gusts4 mph
Wind map for Auburn at Baylor: aerial view of McLane Stadium, wind from the NNE at 2.5 mph, gusting to 4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 1
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM CDT
Venue
McLane Stadium
Capacity
45,140
Elevation
404 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

AuburnAway BaylorHome
This week685 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total685 miles0 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
RestSeason openerSeason opener

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