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Week 1 •
Autzen Stadium

Montana State13 @FINAL 59Oregon

0-0 Big Sky Power rating: -12.0
0-0 Big Ten Power rating: 23.6

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ORE -28.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
ORE -37.5
Edge
+9.1ORE
See details
◂ favors MTSTfavors ORE ▸Market: ORE -28.5
35.6 › ORE
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ORE
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
5 MTST5 ORE10 MTST10 OREModel: ORE -37.5

Betting information

Spread
ORE -28.5
Total
55.5
Odds implied score
MTST 13.5 – 42.0 ORE

ESPN Bet · as of July 10, 2026

Oregon defeated Montana State 59–13 in a dominant performance. Oregon covered by 17.5; Game went Over by 16.5. The market closed at Oregon -28.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Oregon -37.5 - a gap of 9.1 points toward Oregon, of which 8.3 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Montana State vs Oregon?

Montana State

Struggles Against Top-Tier Competition

Montana State was outmatched by No. 7 Oregon, falling 59-13. The Bobcats' defense allowed 38 points by halftime, highlighting a significant gap in talent and execution against a Power Five opponent.

Quarterback Transition Challenges

Justin Lamson, replacing star QB Tommy Mellott, threw for 198 yards but the offense managed only 13 points. The team's inability to sustain drives against Oregon's defense raises concerns about offensive consistency.

Bright Spots in Receiving and Kicking

Taco Dowler had a career-high 12 catches for 107 yards, and Myles Sansted hit two 42-yard field goals. These performances provide a foundation for the passing game and special teams reliability.

Next Game: Hosting South Dakota State

Montana State faces South Dakota State next Saturday. This matchup against another FCS powerhouse will test whether the Bobcats can rebound from the blowout loss and compete at a high level.

What were the weather conditions for Montana State vs Oregon?

At kickoff, conditions at Autzen Stadium were Clear, 72°F with winds of 2 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Montana State travels 600 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Montana State arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Oregon won by 46 in a dominant performance.

Oregon covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 16.5 points.

How do Montana State and Oregon compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Oregon (23.6) over Montana State (-12.0) by 35.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Oregon brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Montana State and Oregon?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Oregon won and Oregon covered the spread.

Conditions

as of August 30, 2025 Game-time

Clear

72°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity54%
Wind2 mph NW
Gusts4 mph
Wind map for Montana State at Oregon: aerial view of Autzen Stadium, wind from the NW at 2 mph, gusting to 4.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 1
Kickoff (local)
01:00 PM PDT
Venue
Autzen Stadium
Capacity
54,000
Elevation
443 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Montana StateAway OregonHome
This week600 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total600 miles0 miles
Body clock14:0013:00
RestSeason openerSeason opener

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