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Week 1 •
Centennial Bank Stadium

Southeast Missouri State24 @FINAL 42Arkansas State

0-0 OVC-Big South Power rating: -28.0
0-0 Sun Belt Power rating: -10.9

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ARST -15.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
ARST -20.0
Edge
+4.5ARST
See details
◂ favors SEMOfavors ARST ▸Market: ARST -15.5
17.1 › ARST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ARST
no impact
no impact
no impact
SEMO
2 SEMO2 ARST4 SEMO4 ARSTModel: ARST -20.0

Betting information

Spread
ARST -15.5
Total
59.5
Odds implied score
SEMO 22.0 – 37.5 ARST

ESPN Bet · as of July 10, 2026

Arkansas State defeated Southeast Missouri State 42–24 to secure a comfortable win. Arkansas State covered by 2.5; Game went Over by 6.5. The market closed at Arkansas State -15.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Arkansas State -20.0 - a gap of 4.5 points toward Arkansas State, of which 3.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Southeast Missouri State vs Arkansas State?

At kickoff, conditions at Centennial Bank Stadium were Partly cloudy, 73°F with winds of 10 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Southeast Missouri State travels 119 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Arkansas State won by 18 to secure a comfortable win.

Arkansas State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 6.5 points.

How do Southeast Missouri State and Arkansas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Arkansas State (-10.9) over Southeast Missouri State (-28.0) by 17.1 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Arkansas State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Southeast Missouri State and Arkansas State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Arkansas State won and Arkansas State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of August 30, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

73°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity37%
Wind10 mph E
Gusts20 mph
Wind map for Southeast Missouri State at Arkansas State: aerial view of Centennial Bank Stadium, wind from the E at 10.3 mph, gusting to 19.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 1
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM CDT
Venue
Centennial Bank Stadium
Capacity
16,343
Elevation
302 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Southeast Missouri StateAway Arkansas StateHome
This week119 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total119 miles0 miles
Body clock18:0018:00
RestSeason openerSeason opener

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