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Week 1 •
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Austin Peay34 @FINAL 14Middle Tennessee

0-0 UAC Power rating: -17.7
0-0 CUSA Power rating: -20.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MTSU -16.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
APSU -0.8
Edge
-17.3APSU
See details
◂ favors APSUfavors MTSU ▸Market: MTSU -16.5
APSU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MTSU
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
10 APSU10 MTSU20 APSU20 MTSUModel: APSU -0.8

Betting information

Spread
MTSU -16.5
Total
53.5
Odds implied score
APSU 18.5 – 35.0 MTSU

ESPN Bet · as of July 10, 2026

Austin Peay defeated Middle Tennessee 34–14 to secure a comfortable win. Austin Peay covered by 36.5; Game went Under by 5.5. The market closed at Middle Tennessee -16.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Austin Peay -0.8 - a gap of 17.3 points toward Austin Peay, of which 16.6 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Austin Peay vs Middle Tennessee?

At kickoff, conditions at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium were Clear, 70°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Austin Peay travels 73 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Austin Peay won by 20 to secure a comfortable win.

Austin Peay covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 5.5 points.

How do Austin Peay and Middle Tennessee compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Austin Peay (-17.7) over Middle Tennessee (-20.8) by 3.1 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Middle Tennessee faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Middle Tennessee brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Austin Peay and Middle Tennessee?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Austin Peay won and Austin Peay covered the spread.

Conditions

as of August 30, 2025 Game-time

Clear

70°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity63%
Wind5 mph NE
Gusts10 mph
Wind map for Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee: aerial view of Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, wind from the NE at 4.9 mph, gusting to 10.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 1
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM CDT
Venue
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Capacity
27,303
Elevation
656 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Austin PeayAway Middle TennesseeHome
This week73 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total73 miles0 miles
Body clock18:0018:00
RestSeason openerSeason opener

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