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Week 7 • October 11, 2025, 07:30 PM UTC
Northwestern @ Penn State
3-2
Big Ten
Power Rank: 5.0
22 FINAL 21
3-2
Big Ten
Power Rank: 15.6
Northwestern covered by 22.5 | Game went Under by 5.5

By · Last updated

Northwestern defeated Penn State 22–21 in a nail-biter. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Penn State 10.6 points stronger on a neutral field.

Northwestern @ Penn State Preview

General Information

Week: Week 7
Kick Off (at stadium): 03:30 PM EDT
Stadium: Beaver Stadium
Capacity: 106,572
Elevation: 1178 ft
HFA Rating: 2.6
Playing Surface: Grass

Betting Information

Spread Penn State -21.5
Total (O/U) 48.5
Expected Score NU 13.5 - 35.0 PSU
Power Rank Implied Line Penn State +10.6
Prediction Markets Penn State 93% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Cloudy

Cloudy

15.8°F

Wind Chill: 7.3°F
Wind: 5.1 mph WSW
Gusts: 10.8 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 94%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Northwestern (Away)

This Week: 516.6 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 2485.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 14:30
Rest Days: 7

Penn State (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 4483.6 miles
Season Total: 4842.3 miles
Body Clock Time: 15:30
Rest Days: 7

Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Penn State -21.5
Total Points 48.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Northwestern 5.0
Penn State 15.6
Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 517 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
HFA: Beaver Stadium
Capacity 106,572
Elevation 1178 ft
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature 15.8°F
Wind Speed 5.1 mph
Your Line Penn State +10.6
Implied Value —

What are the key factors for Northwestern vs Penn State?

Northwestern: Key Factors

Penn State: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

Northwestern travels 517 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Northwestern arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.

Northwestern won by 1 in a nail-biter.

Northwestern covered the spread, covering the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 5.5 points.

Does weather affect this game at Beaver Stadium?

At 15.8°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Northwestern and Penn State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Penn State (15.6) over Northwestern (5.0) by 10.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Penn State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.6). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Northwestern and Penn State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

Northwestern won and Northwestern covered the spread.