Week 7
Bill Snyder Family Stadium

TCU28 @FINAL 41Kansas State , Week 7, Oct 11, 2025

4-1 Big 12 Power rating: 13.4
2-4 Big 12 Power rating: 8.8

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TCU -3.0
PM Implied
TCU -1.0
Blue Chip model
TCU -1.2
Edge
+1.8KSU
See details
◂ favors TCUfavors KSU ▸Market: TCU -3.0
‹ 4.6 TCU
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1 TCU1 KSU2 TCU2 KSU3 TCU3 KSUModel: TCU -1.2

Betting information

Spread
TCU -3.0
Total
54.5
Odds implied score
TCU 28.8 – 25.8 KSU
Prediction markets
TCU 55% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Kansas State defeated TCU 41–28 in a double-digit victory. Kansas State covered by 16.0; Game went Over by 14.5. The market closed at TCU -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it TCU -1.2, an edge of 1.8 points toward Kansas State. Blue Chip Analytics had rated TCU 4.6 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for TCU vs Kansas State?

Kansas State

Defensive touchdowns and turnovers

Kansas State scored two defensive touchdowns, including a pick-6 by Des Purnell, and forced multiple turnovers, which were crucial in building and maintaining their lead against TCU.

Avery Johnson's efficient passing

Quarterback Avery Johnson completed 16 of 26 passes for 196 yards and three touchdowns, showing improved accuracy and decision-making after a rough start to the season.

Garrett Oakley's record-setting performance

Tight end Garrett Oakley caught two touchdown passes, becoming the all-time leader in touchdown catches among K-State tight ends, highlighting his reliability in the red zone.

Opportunistic defense on fourth down

The Wildcats held TCU to 1 of 4 on fourth down conversions, demonstrating their ability to make key stops in critical situations and limit opponent scoring chances.

Bye week before rivalry game

Kansas State has a bye week before facing Kansas in the 'Sunflower Showdown' on Oct. 25, giving them extra time to prepare and recover, which could be advantageous for their next game.

What were the weather conditions for TCU vs Kansas State?

At kickoff, conditions at Bill Snyder Family Stadium were Clear, 74°F with winds of 10 mph. Gusts reaching 21 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

TCU travels 450 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Kansas State won by 13 in a double-digit victory.

Kansas State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 14.5 points.

How do TCU and Kansas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor TCU (13.4) over Kansas State (8.8) by 4.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Kansas State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Kansas State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Kansas State won and Kansas State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 11, 2025 Game-time

Clear

74°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity70%
Wind10 mph ESE
Gusts21 mph
Wind map for TCU at Kansas State: aerial view of Bill Snyder Family Stadium, wind from the ESE at 10.1 mph, gusting to 21 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 7
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CDT
Venue
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Capacity
50,000
Elevation
1,129 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure TCUAway Kansas StateHome
This week450 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,055 miles
Season total4,280 miles11,207 miles
Body clock14:3014:30
Rest7 days7 days