Week 7
Doak Campbell Stadium

Pittsburgh34 @FINAL 31Florida State , Week 7, Oct 11, 2025

3-2 ACC Power rating: 10.1
3-2 ACC Power rating: 15.1

How did the line hold up?

Market line
FSU -10.5
PM Implied
FSU -7.7
Blue Chip model
FSU -7.8
Edge
-2.7PITT
See details
◂ favors PITTfavors FSU ▸Market: FSU -10.5
5.0 › FSU
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FSU
no impact
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PITT
1 PITT1 FSU2 PITT2 FSU3 PITT3 FSUModel: FSU -7.8

Betting information

Spread
FSU -10.5
Total
56.5
Odds implied score
PITT 23.0 – 33.5 FSU
Prediction markets
FSU 78% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Pittsburgh defeated Florida State 34–31 in a nail-biter. Pittsburgh covered by 13.5; Game went Over by 8.5. The market closed at Florida State -10.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Florida State -7.8, an edge of 2.7 points toward Pittsburgh. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Florida State 5.0 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Pittsburgh vs Florida State?

Florida State

Turnover Issues Costly

Florida State's momentum was halted by a critical fumble at midfield in the fourth quarter, leading to a three-and-out and allowing Pittsburgh to extend their lead. This turnover was a key factor in the loss.

Strong Passing Attack

Tommy Castellanos threw for 245 yards and two touchdowns, including a 58-yard strike to Micahi Danzy, showing the Seminoles' ability to generate explosive plays through the air.

Rushing Game Effective but Not Enough

Florida State ran for 170 yards, but the ground game couldn't overcome the turnover and defensive lapses, highlighting a need for better ball security and complementary play.

Defensive Struggles Against Versatile Offense

The defense allowed 321 passing yards and two touchdowns to Pittsburgh's true freshman quarterback, as well as 155 receiving yards to Desmond Reid, indicating vulnerabilities in coverage.

Winless in ACC Play

With the loss, Florida State falls to 0-3 in conference play, putting pressure on the team to turn things around in upcoming games, starting with a road trip to Stanford.

What were the weather conditions for Pittsburgh vs Florida State?

At kickoff, conditions at Doak Campbell Stadium were Partly cloudy, 77°F with winds of 10 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Pittsburgh travels 731 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Pittsburgh won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Pittsburgh covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 8.5 points.

How do Pittsburgh and Florida State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Florida State (15.1) over Pittsburgh (10.1) by 5.0 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Florida State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Pittsburgh won and Pittsburgh covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 11, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

77°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity64%
Wind10 mph NNE
Gusts13 mph
Wind map for Pittsburgh at Florida State: aerial view of Doak Campbell Stadium, wind from the NNE at 10.1 mph, gusting to 12.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 7
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM EDT
Venue
Doak Campbell Stadium
Capacity
50,000
Elevation
95 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure PittsburghAway Florida StateHome
This week731 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total841 miles1,238 miles
Body clock12:0012:00
Rest7 days7 days