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Week 7 •
Waldo Stadium

Ball State0 @FINAL 42Western Michigan

2-3 MAC Power rating: -19.7
3-3 MAC Power rating: -6.7

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
WMU -9.5
PM Implied
WMU -7.2
Blue Chip model
WMU -15.5
Edge
+6.0WMU
See details
◂ favors BALLfavors WMU ▸Market: WMU -9.5
13.0 › WMU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
WMU
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 BALL2 WMU4 BALL4 WMU6 BALL6 WMUModel: WMU -15.5

Betting information

Spread
WMU -9.5
Total
43.5
Odds implied score
BALL 17.0 – 26.5 WMU
Prediction markets
WMU 76% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Western Michigan defeated Ball State 42–0 in a dominant performance. Western Michigan covered by 32.5; Game went Under by 1.5. The market closed at Western Michigan -9.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Western Michigan -15.5 - a gap of 6.0 points toward Western Michigan, of which 5.2 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Ball State vs Western Michigan?

At kickoff, conditions at Waldo Stadium were Overcast, 59°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Ball State travels 143 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Western Michigan won by 42 in a dominant performance.

Western Michigan covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 1.5 points.

How do Ball State and Western Michigan compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Western Michigan (-6.7) over Ball State (-19.7) by 13.0 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Western Michigan brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Ball State and Western Michigan?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Western Michigan won and Western Michigan covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 11, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

59°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity69%
Wind6 mph NE
Gusts12 mph
Wind map for Ball State at Western Michigan: aerial view of Waldo Stadium, wind from the NE at 6 mph, gusting to 12.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 7
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM EDT
Venue
Waldo Stadium
Capacity
36,361
Elevation
807 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Ball StateAway Western MichiganHome
This week143 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,337 miles
Season total2,708 miles1,874 miles
Body clock15:3015:30
Rest7 days7 days

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