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Week 7 •
Canvas Stadium

Fresno State21 @FINAL 49Colorado State

5-1 MW Power rating: -5.6
1-4 MW Power rating: -10.4

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
FRES -5.5
PM Implied
FRES -4.8
Blue Chip model
FRES -1.8
Edge
+3.7CSU
See details
◂ favors FRESfavors CSU ▸Market: FRES -5.5
‹ 4.8 FRES
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
CSU
no impact
no impact
CSU
no impact
2 FRES2 CSU4 FRES4 CSUModel: FRES -1.8

Betting information

Spread
FRES -5.5
Total
47.5
Odds implied score
FRES 26.5 – 21.0 CSU
Prediction markets
FRES 69% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Colorado State defeated Fresno State 49–21 in a dominant performance. Colorado State covered by 33.5; Game went Over by 22.5. The market closed at Fresno State -5.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Fresno State -1.8 - a gap of 3.7 points toward Colorado State, of which 2.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Fresno State 4.8 points stronger on a neutral field.

What were the weather conditions for Fresno State vs Colorado State?

At kickoff, conditions at Canvas Stadium were Fog, 53°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Fresno State travels 833 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Fresno State arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Colorado State won by 28 in a dominant performance.

Colorado State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 22.5 points.

How do Fresno State and Colorado State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Fresno State (-5.6) over Colorado State (-10.4) by 4.8 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Colorado State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Colorado State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Fresno State and Colorado State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Colorado State won and Colorado State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 11, 2025 Game-time

Fog

53°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity97%
Wind4 mph NNW
Gusts6 mph
Wind map for Fresno State at Colorado State: aerial view of Canvas Stadium, wind from the NNW at 3.6 mph, gusting to 6.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 7
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM MDT
Venue
Canvas Stadium
Capacity
41,000
Elevation
5,010 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Fresno StateAway Colorado StateHome
This week833 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,712 miles
Season total9,686 miles3,677 miles
Body clock18:0019:00
Rest6 days7 days

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