DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026
Alabama defeated Missouri 27–24 in a nail-biter. Push covered by 0.0; Game went Over by 0.5. The market closed at Alabama -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Alabama -7.7 - a gap of 4.7 points toward Alabama, of which 3.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.
Simpson threw for 200 yards and three touchdowns, including the game-winning fourth-down pass to Daniel Hill with 3:16 left, showing poise under pressure.
Alabama converted key fourth downs (including a fourth-and-8) and stopped Missouri on fourth down, reflecting their 'unbreakable' mentality and ability to execute in high-leverage moments.
The defense forced two interceptions, including a game-sealing pick by Dijon Lee Jr., and held the nation's leading rusher Ahmad Hardy to just 52 yards, despite allowing some big plays.
Running back Jam Miller left with a concussion in the fourth quarter, and wide receiver Derek Meadows was knocked unconscious (concussion), which could impact depth against Tennessee.
Alabama has won five straight, including consecutive ranked wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, and now Missouri, building confidence heading into a home game against No. 12 Tennessee.
Missouri's 15-game home winning streak, the second-longest nationally, ended with this loss. This could affect team morale and home-field advantage perception moving forward.
Coach Eli Drinkwitz noted 'too many critical mistakes in critical situations,' including two interceptions by QB Beau Pribula and a failed fourth-down conversion that was upheld on review. These errors proved costly against a top opponent.
The nation's leading rusher, Ahmad Hardy, was held to just 52 yards, well below his average. Missouri's offense relied heavily on Pribula's legs (61 yards, 1 TD) and arm (167 yards, 2 TDs), which may not be sustainable against tougher defenses.
Despite trailing late, Missouri scored a touchdown with 1:39 left and forced a punt to get the ball back with 1:17 remaining, showing fight. However, the final drive ended with an interception, highlighting inconsistency in clutch situations.
Missouri plays its first road game of the season against Auburn next Saturday. The Tigers will need to address offensive consistency and avoid critical errors to bounce back on the road.
At kickoff, conditions at Memorial Stadium were Overcast, 73°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Overcast
73°F
| Measure | AlabamaAway | MissouriHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 477 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | Bye week |
| Season total | 1,509 miles | 0 miles |
| Body clock | 11:00 | 11:00 |
| Rest | 7 days | 14 days |
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