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Week 7 •
Memorial Stadium

Alabama27 @FINAL 24Missouri

4-1 SEC Power rating: 26.8
5-0 SEC Power rating: 15.9

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ALA -3.0
PM Implied
ALA -2.9
Blue Chip model
ALA -7.7
Edge
-4.7ALA
See details
◂ favors ALAfavors MIZ ▸Market: ALA -3.0
‹ 10.9 ALA
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MIZ
MIZ
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 ALA2 MIZ4 ALA4 MIZModel: ALA -7.7

Betting information

Spread
ALA -3.0
Total
50.5
Odds implied score
ALA 26.8 – 23.8 MIZ
Prediction markets
ALA 62% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Alabama defeated Missouri 27–24 in a nail-biter. Push covered by 0.0; Game went Over by 0.5. The market closed at Alabama -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Alabama -7.7 - a gap of 4.7 points toward Alabama, of which 3.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Alabama vs Missouri?

Alabama

Ty Simpson's Clutch Performance

Simpson threw for 200 yards and three touchdowns, including the game-winning fourth-down pass to Daniel Hill with 3:16 left, showing poise under pressure.

Resilience in Critical Situations

Alabama converted key fourth downs (including a fourth-and-8) and stopped Missouri on fourth down, reflecting their 'unbreakable' mentality and ability to execute in high-leverage moments.

Defensive Stands and Turnovers

The defense forced two interceptions, including a game-sealing pick by Dijon Lee Jr., and held the nation's leading rusher Ahmad Hardy to just 52 yards, despite allowing some big plays.

Injury Concerns for Key Players

Running back Jam Miller left with a concussion in the fourth quarter, and wide receiver Derek Meadows was knocked unconscious (concussion), which could impact depth against Tennessee.

Momentum from Five-Game Win Streak

Alabama has won five straight, including consecutive ranked wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, and now Missouri, building confidence heading into a home game against No. 12 Tennessee.

Missouri

Home winning streak snapped

Missouri's 15-game home winning streak, the second-longest nationally, ended with this loss. This could affect team morale and home-field advantage perception moving forward.

Critical mistakes in key moments

Coach Eli Drinkwitz noted 'too many critical mistakes in critical situations,' including two interceptions by QB Beau Pribula and a failed fourth-down conversion that was upheld on review. These errors proved costly against a top opponent.

Running game contained

The nation's leading rusher, Ahmad Hardy, was held to just 52 yards, well below his average. Missouri's offense relied heavily on Pribula's legs (61 yards, 1 TD) and arm (167 yards, 2 TDs), which may not be sustainable against tougher defenses.

Resilience shown in comeback attempt

Despite trailing late, Missouri scored a touchdown with 1:39 left and forced a punt to get the ball back with 1:17 remaining, showing fight. However, the final drive ended with an interception, highlighting inconsistency in clutch situations.

Next game: at Auburn

Missouri plays its first road game of the season against Auburn next Saturday. The Tigers will need to address offensive consistency and avoid critical errors to bounce back on the road.

What were the weather conditions for Alabama vs Missouri?

At kickoff, conditions at Memorial Stadium were Overcast, 73°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Alabama travels 477 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Alabama won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Push covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 0.5 points.

How do Alabama and Missouri compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Alabama (26.8) over Missouri (15.9) by 10.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Missouri faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Missouri brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Alabama and Missouri?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Alabama won and Push covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 11, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

73°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity54%
Wind7 mph ENE
Gusts8 mph
Wind map for Alabama at Missouri: aerial view of Memorial Stadium, wind from the ENE at 6.7 mph, gusting to 7.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 7
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CDT
Venue
Memorial Stadium
Capacity
62,621
Elevation
699 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

AlabamaAway MissouriHome
This week477 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total1,509 miles0 miles
Body clock11:0011:00
Rest7 days14 days

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