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Week 7 •
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Missouri State22 @FINAL 20Middle Tennessee

2-3 CUSA Power rating: -13.5
1-4 CUSA Power rating: -17.1

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MOST -3.0
PM Implied
MOST -0.9
Blue Chip model
MOST -1.3
Edge
+1.7MTSU
See details
◂ favors MOSTfavors MTSU ▸Market: MOST -3.0
‹ 3.6 MOST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MTSU
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 MOST1 MTSU2 MOST2 MTSUModel: MOST -1.3

Betting information

Spread
MOST -3.0
Total
51.5
Odds implied score
MOST 27.3 – 24.3 MTSU
Prediction markets
MOST 54% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Missouri State defeated Middle Tennessee 22–20 in a nail-biter. Middle Tennessee covered by 1.0; Game went Under by 9.5. The market closed at Missouri State -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Missouri State -1.3, an edge of 1.7 points toward Middle Tennessee.

What were the weather conditions for Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee?

At kickoff, conditions at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium were Moderate rain, 61°F with winds of 9 mph. A 100% chance of rain with around 0.10 inches expected points to a genuinely wet field. Ball security and the kicking game are the exposures. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Missouri State travels 396 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Missouri State won by 2 in a nail-biter.

Middle Tennessee covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 9.5 points.

How do Missouri State and Middle Tennessee compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Missouri State (-13.5) over Middle Tennessee (-17.1) by 3.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Middle Tennessee faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Middle Tennessee brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Missouri State and Middle Tennessee?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Missouri State won and Middle Tennessee covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 8, 2025 Game-time

Moderate rain

61°F

Rain100%
Precip0.10"
Humidity99%
Wind9 mph NE
Gusts15 mph
Wind map for Missouri State at Middle Tennessee: aerial view of Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, wind from the NE at 8.9 mph, gusting to 15.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 7
Kickoff (local)
06:30 PM CDT
Venue
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Capacity
27,303
Elevation
656 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Missouri StateAway Middle TennesseeHome
This week396 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total4,437 miles5,051 miles
Body clock18:3018:30
Rest11 days11 days

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