Missouri State defeated Middle Tennessee 22–20 in a nail-biter. Middle Tennessee covered by 1.0; Game went Under by 9.5.
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At kick-off, conditions at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium were Moderate rain, 60.8°F, Feels Like 59.4°F with winds of 8.9 mph. Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
60.8°F
Missouri State travels 396 miles to this game, a short road trip.
Missouri State won by 2 in a nail-biter.
Middle Tennessee covered the spread narrowly.
The total went Under by 9.5 points.
Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals.
Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Missouri State (-13.5) over Middle Tennessee (-17.1) by 3.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Middle Tennessee faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Middle Tennessee brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Missouri State won and Middle Tennessee covered the spread.
