14 Final 28 9 Final 20 7 Final 42 14 Final 51 7 Final 38 31 Final 35 45 Final 19 9 Final 56 24 Final 34 0 Final 34 20 Final 27 13 Final 16 14 Final 62 48 Final 45 0 Final 66 17 Final 45 3 Final 77 22 Final 44 10 Final 42 7 Final 55 22 Final 32 31 Final 42 0 Final 70 36 Final 27 12 Final 59 43 Final 36 13 Final 20 6 Final 45 24 Final 38 16 Final 27 30 Final 23 7 Final 31 20 Final 34 17 Final 72 27 Final 26 6 Final 28 33 Final 30 3 Final 69 17 Final 45 7 Final 31 10 Final 17 10 Final 42 18 Final 16 20 Final 38 17 Final 20 14 Final 56 21 Final 20 6 Final 54 3 Final 56 14 Final 56 9 Final 63 3 Final 35 33 Final 31 24 Final 21 21 Final 45 17 Final 21 38 Final 16 20 Final 3 7 Final 68 10 Final 38 3 Final 45 35 Final 9 28 Final 23 40 Final 42 20 Final 59 13 Final 24 0 Final 68 44 Final 20 0 Final 13 17 Final 34 7 Final 23 20 Final 24 3 Final 42 0 Final 73 23 Final 30 10 Final 34 14 Final 21 17 Final 42 3 Final 48 13 Final 36 3 Final 27 10 Final 70 20 Final 37
Week 7 • October 08, 2025, 11:30 PM UTC
Missouri State @ Middle Tennessee
2-3
CUSA
Power Rank: -13.5
22 FINAL 20
1-4
CUSA
Power Rank: -17.1
Middle Tennessee covered by 0.5 | Game went Under by 9.5

By · Last updated

Missouri State defeated Middle Tennessee 22–20 in a nail-biter.

Missouri State @ Middle Tennessee Preview

General Information

Week: Week 7
Kick Off (at stadium): 06:30 PM CDT
Stadium: Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Capacity: 27,303
Elevation: 656 ft
HFA Rating: 2.8
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread Missouri State -2.5
Total (O/U) 51.5
Expected Score MOST 27.0 - 24.5 MTSU
Power Rank Implied Line Missouri State +3.6
Prediction Markets Missouri State 54% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Overcast

Overcast

28.4°F

Wind Chill: 23.9°F
Wind: 4.3 mph SW
Gusts: 8.7 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 85%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Missouri State (Away)

This Week: 395.6 miles
Last Week: No Game
Season Total: 4436.7 miles
Body Clock Time: 18:30
Rest Days: 11

Middle Tennessee (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: No Game
Season Total: 7435.1 miles
Body Clock Time: 18:30
Rest Days: 11

Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Missouri State -2.5
Total Points 51.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Missouri State -13.5
Middle Tennessee -17.1
Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 396 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
HFA: Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Capacity 27,303
Elevation 656 ft
Weather: Overcast
Temperature 28.4°F
Wind Speed 4.3 mph
Your Line Middle Tennessee -3.6
Implied Value —

What are the key factors for Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee?

Missouri State: Key Factors

Middle Tennessee: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

Missouri State travels 396 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Missouri State won by 2 in a nail-biter.

Middle Tennessee covered the spread, covering narrowly.

The total went Under by 9.5 points.

Does weather affect this game at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium?

At 28.4°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Missouri State and Middle Tennessee compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Missouri State (-13.5) over Middle Tennessee (-17.1) by 3.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Middle Tennessee faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Middle Tennessee brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Missouri State and Middle Tennessee?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

Missouri State won and Middle Tennessee covered the spread.