DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026
Troy defeated Texas State 48–41 in a one-score game. Troy covered by 14.5; Game went Over by 35.5. The market closed at Texas State -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Texas State -4.0 - a gap of 3.5 points toward Troy, of which 2.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.
Texas State's offense was explosive, with Brad Jackson throwing for 248 yards and rushing for 77 yards and a touchdown, while Ismail Burrell added 136 rushing yards and a touchdown, and Lincoln Pare scored three rushing touchdowns. However, the defense allowed Troy to rally from a 31-14 deficit, giving up 5 touchdown passes and 415 passing yards, including a game-tying drive in the final 1:13 and an overtime loss.
Texas State had a chance to win in regulation but kicker Tyler Robles missed a 42-yard field goal attempt, sending the game to overtime. This special teams failure was a critical turning point, as the team had momentum after building a lead.
In overtime, Texas State's offense faced a fourth-and-1 from the 16-yard line, but Brad Jackson was stuffed for no gain, ending the game. This failure in short-yardage situations highlights a need for better execution in critical moments.
Texas State rushed for over 200 yards as a team, with three different players contributing, but the passing game was efficient (19-of-22) yet lacked explosive plays beyond the run game. The offense relied heavily on the run, which may be predictable for future opponents.
After leading 31-14 late in the second quarter, Texas State's defense allowed Troy to score 34 unanswered points (including overtime). The inability to adjust to Troy's passing attack, especially in the second half, is a major concern moving forward.
At kickoff, conditions at Bobcat Stadium (TX) were Clear, 70°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Clear
70°F
| Measure | TroyAway | Texas StateHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 723 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | 1,177 miles |
| Season total | 2,992 miles | 2,990 miles |
| Body clock | 19:00 | 19:00 |
| Rest | 8 days | 8 days |
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