Troy defeated Texas State 48–41 in a one-score game. Troy covered by 14.5; Game went Over by 35.5.
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At kick-off, conditions at Bobcat Stadium (TX) were Clear, 69.8°F, Feels Like 69.8°F with winds of 6.7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
69.8°F
Texas State's offense was explosive, with Brad Jackson throwing for 248 yards and rushing for 77 yards and a touchdown, while Ismail Burrell added 136 rushing yards and a touchdown, and Lincoln Pare scored three rushing touchdowns. However, the defense allowed Troy to rally from a 31-14 deficit, giving up 5 touchdown passes and 415 passing yards, including a game-tying drive in the final 1:13 and an overtime loss.
Texas State had a chance to win in regulation but kicker Tyler Robles missed a 42-yard field goal attempt, sending the game to overtime. This special teams failure was a critical turning point, as the team had momentum after building a lead.
In overtime, Texas State's offense faced a fourth-and-1 from the 16-yard line, but Brad Jackson was stuffed for no gain, ending the game. This failure in short-yardage situations highlights a need for better execution in critical moments.
Texas State rushed for over 200 yards as a team, with three different players contributing, but the passing game was efficient (19-of-22) yet lacked explosive plays beyond the run game. The offense relied heavily on the run, which may be predictable for future opponents.
After leading 31-14 late in the second quarter, Texas State's defense allowed Troy to score 34 unanswered points (including overtime). The inability to adjust to Troy's passing attack, especially in the second half, is a major concern moving forward.
Troy travels 723 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.
Troy won by 7 in a one-score game.
Troy covered the spread comfortably.
The total went Over by 35.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Texas State (-3.3) over Troy (-4.4) by 1.1 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Texas State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Troy won and Troy covered the spread.
