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Week 7 •
Bobcat Stadium (TX)

Troy48 @FINAL 41Texas State

3-2 Sun Belt Power rating: -4.4
3-2 Sun Belt Power rating: -3.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TXST -7.5
PM Implied
TXST -6.2
Blue Chip model
TXST -4.0
Edge
-3.5TROY
See details
◂ favors TROYfavors TXST ▸Market: TXST -7.5
TXST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
TXST
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 TROY2 TXST4 TROY4 TXSTModel: TXST -4.0

Betting information

Spread
TXST -7.5
Total
53.5
Odds implied score
TROY 23.0 – 30.5 TXST
Prediction markets
TXST 73% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Troy defeated Texas State 48–41 in a one-score game. Troy covered by 14.5; Game went Over by 35.5. The market closed at Texas State -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Texas State -4.0 - a gap of 3.5 points toward Troy, of which 2.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Troy vs Texas State?

Texas State

Offensive firepower but defensive collapse

Texas State's offense was explosive, with Brad Jackson throwing for 248 yards and rushing for 77 yards and a touchdown, while Ismail Burrell added 136 rushing yards and a touchdown, and Lincoln Pare scored three rushing touchdowns. However, the defense allowed Troy to rally from a 31-14 deficit, giving up 5 touchdown passes and 415 passing yards, including a game-tying drive in the final 1:13 and an overtime loss.

Missed field goal forces overtime

Texas State had a chance to win in regulation but kicker Tyler Robles missed a 42-yard field goal attempt, sending the game to overtime. This special teams failure was a critical turning point, as the team had momentum after building a lead.

Fourth-down stop ends game in OT

In overtime, Texas State's offense faced a fourth-and-1 from the 16-yard line, but Brad Jackson was stuffed for no gain, ending the game. This failure in short-yardage situations highlights a need for better execution in critical moments.

Strong rushing attack but limited passing efficiency

Texas State rushed for over 200 yards as a team, with three different players contributing, but the passing game was efficient (19-of-22) yet lacked explosive plays beyond the run game. The offense relied heavily on the run, which may be predictable for future opponents.

Second-half defensive adjustments needed

After leading 31-14 late in the second quarter, Texas State's defense allowed Troy to score 34 unanswered points (including overtime). The inability to adjust to Troy's passing attack, especially in the second half, is a major concern moving forward.

What were the weather conditions for Troy vs Texas State?

At kickoff, conditions at Bobcat Stadium (TX) were Clear, 70°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Troy travels 723 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Troy won by 7 in a one-score game.

Troy covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 35.5 points.

How do Troy and Texas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Texas State (-3.3) over Troy (-4.4) by 1.1 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Texas State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Troy and Texas State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Troy won and Troy covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 12, 2025 Game-time

Clear

70°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity44%
Wind7 mph S
Gusts14 mph
Wind map for Troy at Texas State: aerial view of Bobcat Stadium (TX), wind from the S at 6.7 mph, gusting to 14.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 7
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM CDT
Venue
Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Capacity
27,149
Elevation
600 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

TroyAway Texas StateHome
This week723 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,177 miles
Season total2,992 miles2,990 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
Rest8 days8 days

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