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Week 7 •
Arizona Stadium

BYU33 @FINAL 27Arizona

5-0 Big 12 Power rating: 19.9
4-1 Big 12 Power rating: 9.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
BYU -2.5
PM Implied
BYU -1.7
Blue Chip model
BYU -8.2
Edge
-5.7BYU
See details
◂ favors BYUfavors ARIZ ▸Market: BYU -2.5
‹ 10.6 BYU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ARIZ
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 BYU2 ARIZ4 BYU4 ARIZ6 BYU6 ARIZModel: BYU -8.2

Betting information

Spread
BYU -2.5
Total
46.5
Odds implied score
BYU 24.5 – 22.0 ARIZ
Prediction markets
BYU 57% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

BYU defeated Arizona 33–27 in a closely contested finish. BYU covered by 3.5; Game went Over by 13.5. The market closed at BYU -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it BYU -8.2 - a gap of 5.7 points toward BYU, of which 4.9 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for BYU vs Arizona?

BYU

Resilient Comeback and Overtime Win

BYU overcame a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit, tying the game with 19 seconds left on a 2-yard touchdown run by freshman QB Bear Bachmeier, then won in double overtime. This shows the team's mental toughness and ability to perform under pressure, which could be crucial against Utah.

Freshman QB Bear Bachmeier's Dual-Threat Ability

Bachmeier threw for 172 yards, one TD, and two interceptions, but also ran for 89 yards and two TDs on 22 carries, including the game-winner in OT. His rushing ability adds a dynamic element to the offense, but his interceptions highlight inconsistency that Utah's defense may exploit.

Strong Running Game Led by LJ Martin

LJ Martin rushed for a career-high 162 yards and a touchdown, providing a reliable ground attack. This balance will be key against Utah's defense, as controlling the clock and keeping the chains moving can limit Utah's offensive opportunities.

Defensive Stand in Overtime

BYU's defense forced a fourth-down incompletion in the end zone to seal the win, despite allowing 27 points. Linebacker Siale Esera had 16 tackles, but the unit showed vulnerability on Arizona's 36-yard TD run. Improving run defense will be critical against Utah's rushing attack.

Undefeated Record and Big 12 Implications

BYU improved to 6-0 (3-0 Big 12) for the second straight season, maintaining their undefeated status. The win keeps them in contention for the Big 12 title, and the upcoming rivalry game against Utah (Oct. 18) will be a major test of their championship credentials.

Arizona

Heartbreaking Double Overtime Loss

Arizona lost 33-27 in double overtime to No. 18 BYU after leading by 10 points in the fourth quarter. The Wildcats had a chance to tie in the second OT but Noah Fifita's fourth-down pass was dropped in the end zone, marking their second loss in three games.

Offensive Highlights and Key Performers

Noah Fifita threw for 219 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Kris Hutson had 106 receiving yards and a touchdown on nine catches. Kedrick Reescano added a powerful 36-yard touchdown run, but the offense stalled in the fourth quarter and overtime.

Defensive Struggles in Critical Moments

Arizona's defense allowed BYU to rally from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter, giving up a game-tying touchdown with 19 seconds left. The unit also failed to stop BYU's freshman quarterback on key runs, including the game-winning 7-yard touchdown in double overtime.

Weather Delay Impact

The game was delayed 75 minutes early in the second quarter due to lightning from Hurricane Priscilla's remnants. Arizona led 14-7 at the time but struggled to maintain momentum after the break, though they still took a 17-14 halftime lead.

Next Game Outlook at Houston

Arizona (4-2, 1-2 Big 12) travels to Houston on Oct. 18. The Wildcats need to bounce back from this tough loss and improve their consistency, especially in closing out games, to stay competitive in the conference race.

What were the weather conditions for BYU vs Arizona?

At kickoff, conditions at Arizona Stadium were Partly cloudy, 73°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

BYU travels 555 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

BYU arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

BYU won by 6 in a closely contested finish.

BYU covered the spread.

The total went Over by 13.5 points.

How do BYU and Arizona compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor BYU (19.9) over Arizona (9.3) by 10.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Arizona faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Arizona brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on BYU and Arizona?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

BYU won and BYU covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 12, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

73°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity76%
Wind5 mph SSE
Gusts9 mph
Wind map for BYU at Arizona: aerial view of Arizona Stadium, wind from the SSE at 5.4 mph, gusting to 9.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 7
Kickoff (local)
05:00 PM MST
Venue
Arizona Stadium
Capacity
50,782
Elevation
2,438 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

BYUAway ArizonaHome
This week555 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total5,009 miles2,333 miles
Body clock18:0017:00
Rest8 days8 days

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