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Week 7 •
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Michigan13 @FINAL 31USC

4-1 Big Ten Power rating: 15.9
4-1 Big Ten Power rating: 21.6

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
USC -3.0
PM Implied
USC -1.8
Blue Chip model
USC -10.4
Edge
+7.5USC
See details
◂ favors MICHfavors USC ▸Market: USC -3.0
USC
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
USC
USC
USC
no impact
no impact
5 MICH5 USCModel: USC -10.4

Betting information

Spread
USC -3.0
Total
58.5
Odds implied score
MICH 27.8 – 30.8 USC
Prediction markets
USC 58% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

USC defeated Michigan 31–13 to secure a comfortable win. USC covered by 15.0; Game went Under by 14.5. The market closed at USC -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it USC -10.4 - a gap of 7.5 points toward USC, of which 6.0 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Michigan vs USC?

Michigan

Offensive struggles and missed opportunities

Michigan's offense managed only 13 points, with Bryce Underwood throwing for 207 yards and two touchdowns, but the team scored just once on its first six full drives into the fourth quarter. Two red-zone turnovers (a fumble and an interception) prevented them from closing the gap, highlighting a lack of efficiency in critical situations.

Injuries to key running backs

Star running back Justice Haynes missed the second half due to injury, forcing Jordan Marshall into a larger role. Marshall acknowledged the offense's inability to sustain drives, putting pressure on the defense and limiting time of possession.

Defense showed resilience but was gashed on the ground

Despite entering as the nation's seventh-ranked run defense, Michigan allowed 224 rushing yards, including long runs by USC's third-string walk-on King Miller. The defense did force two red-zone takeaways, but overall couldn't contain USC's ground game, which was a key factor in the loss.

Learning experience for a young team

Coach Sherrone Moore emphasized the need to fix issues in big games, noting the team's fight but also the need to improve execution. The loss ended a three-game winning streak and exposed vulnerabilities that need addressing, especially with a tough schedule ahead.

Next game: Hosting Washington

Michigan will look to rebound at home against Washington next Saturday. The Wolverines must address offensive consistency, red-zone efficiency, and run defense to avoid a second consecutive loss.

USC

Walk-on RB King Miller shines

With top three tailbacks injured, walk-on King Miller rushed for 158 yards and a touchdown, including runs of 49 and 47 yards, showcasing USC's depth and resilience.

Defensive takeaways key victory

Bishop Fitzgerald intercepted two passes, including a red-zone pick, and the defense held Michigan to 13 points, proving effective against a ranked opponent.

Offensive line overcomes injuries

Despite missing two starting offensive linemen, USC rushed for 224 yards against the nation's seventh-ranked run defense, demonstrating physical dominance.

Momentum and confidence boost

The win over No. 15 Michigan is USC's most impressive since 2022, likely returning them to the AP Top 25 and building serious momentum for the season.

Next week: rivalry game at Notre Dame

USC travels to South Bend to face Notre Dame, needing to maintain physical play and defensive intensity against a tough opponent in a hostile environment.

What were the weather conditions for Michigan vs USC?

At kickoff, conditions at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum were Clear, 66°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Michigan travels 1,951 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

That is a westward shift of 3 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

USC won by 18 to secure a comfortable win.

USC covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 14.5 points.

How do Michigan and USC compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor USC (21.6) over Michigan (15.9) by 5.7 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. USC brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Michigan and USC?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

USC won and USC covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 11, 2025 Game-time

Clear

66°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity66%
Wind5 mph SSE
Gusts7 mph
Wind map for Michigan at USC: aerial view of Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, wind from the SSE at 5.4 mph, gusting to 7.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 7
Kickoff (local)
04:30 PM PDT
Venue
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Capacity
77,500
Elevation
177 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

MichiganAway USCHome
This week1,951 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total5,076 miles6,959 miles
Body clock19:3016:30
Rest7 days14 days

Other games this week