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Week 7 •
Mackay Stadium

San Diego State44 @FINAL 10Nevada

4-1 MW Power rating: 1.4
1-4 MW Power rating: -14.1

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
SDSU -6.5
PM Implied
SDSU -5.7
Blue Chip model
SDSU -12.2
Edge
-5.7SDSU
See details
◂ favors SDSUfavors NEV ▸Market: SDSU -6.5
‹ 15.5 SDSU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
NEV
no impact
no impact
NEV
NEV
2 SDSU2 NEV4 SDSU4 NEV6 SDSU6 NEVModel: SDSU -12.2

Betting information

Spread
SDSU -6.5
Total
42.5
Odds implied score
SDSU 24.5 – 18.0 NEV
Prediction markets
SDSU 72% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

San Diego State defeated Nevada 44–10 in a dominant performance. San Diego State covered by 27.5; Game went Over by 11.5. The market closed at San Diego State -6.5 and the Blue Chip model made it San Diego State -12.2 - a gap of 5.7 points toward San Diego State, of which 4.4 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for San Diego State vs Nevada?

At kickoff, conditions at Mackay Stadium were Clear, 32°F, wind chill 29°F with winds of 3 mph. At 32°F, cold is worth noting but is unlikely to be decisive. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

San Diego State travels 490 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

San Diego State won by 34 in a dominant performance.

San Diego State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 11.5 points.

How do San Diego State and Nevada compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor San Diego State (1.4) over Nevada (-14.1) by 15.5 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Nevada faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Nevada brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on San Diego State and Nevada?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

San Diego State won and San Diego State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 12, 2025 Game-time

Clear

32°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity83%
Wind3 mph W
Gusts6 mph
Wind chill29°F
Wind map for San Diego State at Nevada: aerial view of Mackay Stadium, wind from the W at 3.4 mph, gusting to 5.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 7
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM PDT
Venue
Mackay Stadium
Capacity
30,000
Elevation
4,619 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

San Diego StateAway NevadaHome
This week490 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game377 miles
Season total5,761 miles8,403 miles
Body clock19:3019:30
Rest8 days7 days

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