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Week 7 •
Lincoln Financial Field

Navy32 @FINAL 31Temple

5-0 American Power rating: 2.3
3-2 American Power rating: -7.6

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
NAVY -10.0
PM Implied
NAVY -7.2
Blue Chip model
NAVY -6.3
Edge
+3.7TEM
See details
◂ favors NAVYfavors TEM ▸Market: NAVY -10.0
‹ 9.9 NAVY
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
TEM
no impact
no impact
no impact
TEM
2 NAVY2 TEM4 NAVY4 TEMModel: NAVY -6.3

Betting information

Spread
NAVY -10.0
Total
52.5
Odds implied score
NAVY 31.3 – 21.3 TEM
Prediction markets
NAVY 76% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Navy defeated Temple 32–31 in a nail-biter. Temple covered by 9.0; Game went Over by 10.5. The market closed at Navy -10.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Navy -6.3 - a gap of 3.7 points toward Temple, of which 2.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Navy vs Temple?

Navy

Horvath's Dual-Threat Dominance

Blake Horvath accounted for 296 total yards (141 passing, 155 rushing) and three touchdowns, including a 51-yard go-ahead run late in the fourth quarter. His ability to both pass and run effectively makes Navy's offense unpredictable and dangerous.

Resilient Comeback Ability

Navy trailed by 10 points midway through the third quarter but outscored Temple 18-7 in the final 20 minutes. This shows the team's composure and ability to execute under pressure, which is valuable in close games.

Triple-Option Rushing Attack

Navy's triple-option offense produced 243 rushing yards at 6.6 yards per carry. This ground game can control the clock and wear down defenses, setting up play-action passes for Horvath.

Defensive Vulnerabilities Exposed

Navy allowed 505 total yards, including 332 passing yards and a 26-yard touchdown pass. The defense struggled against Temple's passing attack, which could be a concern against more potent offenses.

Turnover Margin Key

Navy forced a key fumble from Temple that helped shift momentum. Creating turnovers will be critical for Navy to offset defensive lapses and secure wins in future games.

Temple

High-Powered Offense but Costly Turnover

Temple outgained Navy 505-384 and had strong offensive production, but a key fumble proved costly in the 32-31 loss.

Evan Simon's Strong Passing Performance

Quarterback Evan Simon threw for 332 yards and a touchdown, adding a rushing score, showing he can lead a potent passing attack.

Jay Ducker's Rushing Efficiency

Running back Jay Ducker rushed for 97 yards and two touchdowns, including a late go-ahead score, providing a reliable ground game.

Defensive Struggles Against Triple-Option

Temple's defense allowed 243 rushing yards and 6.6 yards per carry, and couldn't stop Navy's quarterback Blake Horvath on key runs, including the game-winning 51-yard touchdown.

Late Lead Blown in Fourth Quarter

Temple took a 31-24 lead with 3:48 remaining but couldn't hold it, as Navy scored the go-ahead touchdown with just over two minutes left, highlighting late-game defensive issues.

What were the weather conditions for Navy vs Temple?

At kickoff, conditions at Lincoln Financial Field were Overcast, 62°F with winds of 11 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Navy travels 96 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Navy won by 1 in a nail-biter.

Temple covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 10.5 points.

How do Navy and Temple compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Navy (2.3) over Temple (-7.6) by 9.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Temple faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Temple brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Navy and Temple?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Navy won and Temple covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 11, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

62°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity84%
Wind11 mph E
Gusts17 mph
Wind map for Navy at Temple: aerial view of Lincoln Financial Field, wind from the E at 11 mph, gusting to 17 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 7
Kickoff (local)
04:00 PM EDT
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Capacity
67,594
Elevation
43 ft
Surface
Hybrid

Travel and rest

NavyAway TempleHome
This week96 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total2,261 miles1,764 miles
Body clock16:0016:00
Rest7 days7 days

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