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Week 7 •
Neyland Stadium

Arkansas31 @FINAL 34Tennessee

2-3 SEC Power rating: 9.3
4-1 SEC Power rating: 18.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TENN -10.0
PM Implied
TENN -8.0
Blue Chip model
TENN -11.6
Edge
+1.6TENN
See details
◂ favors ARKfavors TENN ▸Market: TENN -10.0
8.7 › TENN
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
TENN
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 ARK1 TENN2 ARK2 TENN3 ARK3 TENNModel: TENN -11.6

Betting information

Spread
TENN -10.0
Total
68.5
Odds implied score
ARK 29.3 – 39.3 TENN
Prediction markets
TENN 79% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Tennessee defeated Arkansas 34–31 in a nail-biter. Arkansas covered by 7.0; Game went Under by 3.5. The market closed at Tennessee -10.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Tennessee -11.6, an edge of 1.6 points toward Tennessee.

What are the key factors for Arkansas vs Tennessee?

Arkansas

Turnover and Sack Issues

Arkansas lost three fumbles and allowed five sacks, which disrupted offensive rhythm and gave Tennessee short fields. This must be cleaned up to compete against Texas A&M.

Resilience Under Interim Coach

Despite the coaching change and loss, the team showed grit, rallying from a 17-point deficit to make it a one-score game. This mental toughness could be a positive factor moving forward.

Taylen Green's Dual-Threat Ability

Green threw for 256 yards and two TDs and ran for 63 yards and a score, showing he can be a dynamic playmaker. His continued development is key for Arkansas' offensive success.

Aggressive Fourth-Down Decision Backfires

Petrino's decision to go for it on 4th-and-3 from the Tennessee 26 instead of kicking a field goal resulted in a turnover on downs, a critical missed scoring opportunity that could have changed the game's outcome.

Defensive Adjustment Period

With new defensive leadership after Pittman's firing, the defense is still adapting, which is challenging against a tough SEC schedule. Expect growing pains against Texas A&M.

Tennessee

Running back depth shines

DeSean Bishop ran for a career-high 146 yards and a TD before leaving with a leg injury, but Peyton Lewis stepped in and scored two TDs, showing the Vols have reliable options in the backfield.

Run defense needs improvement

Tennessee allowed 131 rushing yards to Arkansas' Mike Washington, and with upcoming games against Alabama, Kentucky, and Oklahoma, the run defense must tighten up to compete.

Penalties remain a concern

The Vols were flagged 10 times for 78 yards, which could be costly in close SEC matchups, especially on the road against Alabama.

Offensive balance emerging

Joey Aguilar threw for 221 yards and a TD, while the running game combined for over 200 yards, giving Tennessee a balanced attack that will be key against tough defenses.

What were the weather conditions for Arkansas vs Tennessee?

At kickoff, conditions at Neyland Stadium were Partly cloudy, 66°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Arkansas travels 574 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Arkansas arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Tennessee won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Arkansas covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 3.5 points.

How do Arkansas and Tennessee compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Tennessee (18.0) over Arkansas (9.3) by 8.7 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Tennessee brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Arkansas and Tennessee?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Tennessee won and Arkansas covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 11, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

66°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity67%
Wind4 mph N
Gusts8 mph
Wind map for Arkansas at Tennessee: aerial view of Neyland Stadium, wind from the N at 3.6 mph, gusting to 7.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 7
Kickoff (local)
04:15 PM EDT
Venue
Neyland Stadium
Capacity
101,915
Elevation
899 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

ArkansasAway TennesseeHome
This week574 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total1,641 miles960 miles
Body clock15:1516:15
Rest14 days14 days

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