Week 7 •
Autzen Stadium

Indiana30 @FINAL 20Oregon , Week 7, Oct 11, 2025

5-0 Big Ten Power rating: 30.0
5-0 Big Ten Power rating: 25.3

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ORE -7.0
PM Implied
ORE -6.0
Blue Chip model
IU -1.9
Edge
-8.8IU
See details
◂ favors IUfavors ORE ▸Market: ORE -7.0
IU
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ORE
no impact
ORE
no impact
no impact
5 IU5 ORE10 IU10 OREModel: IU -1.9

Betting information

Spread
ORE -7.0
Total
51.5
Odds implied score
IU 22.3 – 29.3 ORE
Prediction markets
ORE 73% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Indiana defeated Oregon 30–20 in a double-digit victory. Indiana covered by 17.0; Game went Under by 1.5. The market closed at Oregon -7.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Indiana -1.9 - a gap of 8.8 points toward Indiana, of which 7.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Indiana vs Oregon?

Indiana

Historic road win over top-5 team

Indiana defeated No. 3 Oregon 30-20 at Autzen Stadium, snapping Oregon's 18-game home winning streak and marking Indiana's first win over a top-five team since 1967.

Defensive dominance and turnovers

Indiana's defense sacked Oregon's quarterback six times and intercepted two passes, including a crucial fourth-quarter pick by Louis Moore that set up a field goal to seal the win.

Quarterback resilience under pressure

Fernando Mendoza threw for 215 yards and a touchdown, bouncing back from a pick-six to lead a go-ahead scoring drive with an 8-yard pass to Elijah Sarratt in the fourth quarter.

Special teams and field position edge

Indiana's kicking game was strong, with Brendan Franke hitting a 58-yard field goal as time expired in the first half and a 22-yarder late, while Oregon missed a key field goal.

Next game: Home vs. Michigan State

Indiana hosts Michigan State next Saturday, looking to build on their undefeated record and maintain momentum after a statement win on the road.

Oregon

Offensive Line Struggles

Oregon's offensive line allowed six sacks and failed to establish a consistent run game, contributing to quarterback Dante Moore's two interceptions and the team's inability to sustain drives.

Turnover Issues

Dante Moore threw two interceptions, including a critical pick-six that tied the game in the fourth quarter, and another that set up Indiana's final field goal, directly leading to the loss.

Home Streak Snapped

The loss ended Oregon's 18-game winning streak at Autzen Stadium, the longest active streak in the nation, which could affect team morale and home-field advantage perception.

Missed Scoring Opportunities

Oregon failed on a fourth-and-1 early, missed a 36-yard field goal that would have given them the lead, and had a 44-yard touchdown pass but couldn't capitalize on other chances, leaving points on the field.

Resilience Needed for Rutgers

Coach Dan Lanning emphasized that all team goals remain attainable, but the Ducks must quickly address offensive line protection and ball security to avoid a second straight loss at Rutgers next week.

What were the weather conditions for Indiana vs Oregon?

At kickoff, conditions at Autzen Stadium were Heavy rain at times, 51°F with winds of 5 mph. There is a 100% chance of rain, though little accumulation is expected. Blue Chip has not been able to measure a reliable line effect from rain, so treat this as context rather than signal. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Indiana travels 1,906 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

That is a westward shift of 3 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

Indiana won by 10 in a double-digit victory.

Indiana covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 1.5 points.

How do Indiana and Oregon compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Indiana (30.0) over Oregon (25.3) by 4.7 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Oregon faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Oregon brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Indiana won and Indiana covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 11, 2025 Game-time

Heavy rain at times

51°F

Rain100%
Precip0.05"
Humidity94%
Wind5 mph S
Gusts8 mph
Wind map for Indiana at Oregon: aerial view of Autzen Stadium, wind from the S at 5.4 mph, gusting to 8.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 7
Kickoff (local)
12:30 PM PDT
Venue
Autzen Stadium
Capacity
54,000
Elevation
443 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure IndianaAway OregonHome
This week1,906 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total2,537 miles8,153 miles
Body clock15:3012:30
Rest14 days14 days