Indiana defeated Oregon 30–20 in a double-digit victory. Indiana covered by 17.0; Game went Under by 1.5.
Adjust any factor to update your projected line
Positive adjustment = favours home team
At kick-off, conditions at Autzen Stadium were Heavy rain at times, 50.5°F, Wind Chill 47.7°F with winds of 5.4 mph. Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
50.5°F
Indiana defeated No. 3 Oregon 30-20 at Autzen Stadium, snapping Oregon's 18-game home winning streak and marking Indiana's first win over a top-five team since 1967.
Indiana's defense sacked Oregon's quarterback six times and intercepted two passes, including a crucial fourth-quarter pick by Louis Moore that set up a field goal to seal the win.
Fernando Mendoza threw for 215 yards and a touchdown, bouncing back from a pick-six to lead a go-ahead scoring drive with an 8-yard pass to Elijah Sarratt in the fourth quarter.
Indiana's kicking game was strong, with Brendan Franke hitting a 58-yard field goal as time expired in the first half and a 22-yarder late, while Oregon missed a key field goal.
Indiana hosts Michigan State next Saturday, looking to build on their undefeated record and maintain momentum after a statement win on the road.
Oregon's offensive line allowed six sacks and failed to establish a consistent run game, contributing to quarterback Dante Moore's two interceptions and the team's inability to sustain drives.
Dante Moore threw two interceptions, including a critical pick-six that tied the game in the fourth quarter, and another that set up Indiana's final field goal, directly leading to the loss.
The loss ended Oregon's 18-game winning streak at Autzen Stadium, the longest active streak in the nation, which could affect team morale and home-field advantage perception.
Oregon failed on a fourth-and-1 early, missed a 36-yard field goal that would have given them the lead, and had a 44-yard touchdown pass but couldn't capitalize on other chances, leaving points on the field.
Coach Dan Lanning emphasized that all team goals remain attainable, but the Ducks must quickly address offensive line protection and ball security to avoid a second straight loss at Rutgers next week.
Indiana travels 1,906 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.
Indiana arrives with a 3-hour body clock disadvantage.
Indiana won by 10 in a double-digit victory.
Indiana covered the spread comfortably.
The total went Under by 1.5 points.
Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals.
Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Indiana (30.0) over Oregon (25.3) by 4.7 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Oregon faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Oregon brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Indiana won and Indiana covered the spread.
