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Week 9 •
Davis Wade Stadium

Texas45 @FINAL 38Mississippi State

5-2 SEC Power rating: 20.6
4-3 SEC Power rating: 12.9

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TEX -8.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
TEX -6.2
Edge
+2.3MSST
See details
◂ favors TEXfavors MSST ▸Market: TEX -8.5
‹ 7.7 TEX
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MSST
no impact
no impact
no impact
MSST
1 TEX1 MSST2 TEX2 MSSTModel: TEX -6.2

Betting information

Spread
TEX -8.5
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
TEX 28.5 – 20.0 MSST

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Texas defeated Mississippi State 45–38 in a one-score game. Mississippi State covered by 1.5; Game went Over by 34.5. The market closed at Texas -8.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Texas -6.2, an edge of 2.3 points toward Mississippi State.

What are the key factors for Texas vs Mississippi State?

Mississippi State

Offensive Explosion but Defensive Collapse

Mississippi State's offense had a career day with 445 total yards and QB Blake Shapen throwing for 381 yards and 4 TDs, but the defense allowed Texas to erase a 17-point fourth-quarter lead and force overtime, extending their SEC losing streak to 16 games.

Inability to Close Games

The Bulldogs led 38-21 with 12:29 left but surrendered 17 unanswered points in regulation, including a punt return TD and a late field goal, highlighting a recurring issue of failing to finish SEC games under coach Jeff Lebby.

Pass Rush vs. Protection Issues

Mississippi State recorded 5 sacks and 12 tackles for loss, but Texas countered with 7 sacks, including 4 on Shapen in the final 5 minutes of regulation and overtime, disrupting the Bulldogs' rhythm when it mattered most.

Road Test Ahead at Arkansas

Mississippi State (4-4, 0-4 SEC) travels to Arkansas next week, needing to break their conference losing streak. The Bulldogs must improve their late-game execution and pass protection to compete against another tough SEC opponent.

What were the weather conditions for Texas vs Mississippi State?

At kickoff, conditions at Davis Wade Stadium were Overcast, 69°F with winds of 10 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Texas travels 569 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Texas won by 7 in a one-score game.

Mississippi State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 34.5 points.

How do Texas and Mississippi State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Texas (20.6) over Mississippi State (12.9) by 7.7 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Mississippi State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Mississippi State brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Texas and Mississippi State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Texas won and Mississippi State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 25, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

69°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity40%
Wind10 mph SE
Gusts19 mph
Wind map for Texas at Mississippi State: aerial view of Davis Wade Stadium, wind from the SE at 10.1 mph, gusting to 18.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 9
Kickoff (local)
03:15 PM CDT
Venue
Davis Wade Stadium
Capacity
60,311
Elevation
381 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

TexasAway Mississippi StateHome
This week569 miles0 miles
Last week1,851 miles923 miles
Season total6,761 miles2,192 miles
Body clock15:1515:15
Rest7 days7 days

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