Week 9 • Oct 25, 2025, 02:00 PM CDT

Rice Stadium

UConn34 @FINAL 37Rice , Week 9, Oct 25, 2025

5-2 Independent Power rating: -3.2

3-4 American Power rating: -14.6

By Liam Browne · Last updated August 14, 2026

How did the line hold up?

Market line: CONN -10.5
PM Implied: Not yet available
Blue Chip model: CONN -7.4
Edge: +3.1RICE

See details

◂ favors CONNfavors RICE ▸Market: CONN -10.5

Power ratings ‹ 11.4 CONN

UConn Rice The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team

Home field RICE

Rest RICE

Travel RICE

Elevation no impact

Weather RICE

1 CONN1 RICE2 CONN2 RICE3 CONN3 RICEModel: CONN -7.4

How the Blue Chip model builds its line for UConn at Rice. Points are home-oriented: a positive number favors Rice.
Input	Points	Favors	Plausible range	Note
Power ratings	-11.4	CONN	fixed	-
Home field	+2.7	RICE	+1.9 to +3.4	-
Rest	+0.8	RICE	+0.5 to +1.0	Home team off a bye.
Travel	+0.3	RICE	0.0 to +0.7	Visitor west 1 time zone (includes distance).
Elevation	0.0	no impact	fixed	-
Weather	+0.3	RICE	0.0 to +0.5	Harsh conditions - compresses toward the underdog.
Blue Chip line	-7.4	CONN	-	-
Market line	-10.5	CONN	-	-
Difference	-3.1	CONN	-	Market minus model

Betting information

Spread: CONN -10.5
Total: 48.5
Odds implied score: CONN 29.5 – 19.0 RICE

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Rice defeated UConn 37–34 in a nail-biter. Rice covered by 13.5; Game went Over by 22.5. The market closed at UConn -10.5 and the Blue Chip model made it UConn -7.4, an edge of 3.1 points toward Rice. Blue Chip Analytics had rated UConn 11.4 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for UConn vs Rice?

UConn

Offensive Firepower

Joe Fagnano threw for 344 yards and 3 touchdowns, including an 80-yard strike to Skyler Bell, showing the Huskies can move the ball through the air effectively.

Kicking Woes

Chris Freeman missed a 46-yard field goal in the fourth quarter that would have given UConn the lead, highlighting potential inconsistency in the kicking game.

Defensive Struggles

The defense allowed Rice's Quinton Jackson to accumulate 256 combined yards and 4 touchdowns, including big plays of 73 and 75 yards, indicating vulnerability to explosive plays.

Streak Snapped

The loss ended a five-game winning streak and prevented bowl eligibility, which could affect team morale and momentum moving forward.

Rice

Quinton Jackson's Breakout Performance

Jackson set career highs with 256 combined yards and four touchdowns, including a 73-yard rushing TD and a 75-yard receiving TD. His versatility and explosiveness will be a key weapon for Rice moving forward.

Snapped Three-Game Losing Streak

The win ended a three-game skid, improving Rice to 4-4. This momentum boost could be crucial for their bowl eligibility push in the remaining games.

Offensive Explosion in Overtime

Rice scored 10 points in the two overtime periods, with Jackson's 23-yard game-winning run in the second OT. The offense showed resilience and clutch play under pressure.

Defensive Struggles Against the Pass

UConn's Joe Fagnano threw for 344 yards and three touchdowns, including an 80-yard score. Rice's secondary will need to improve to contain strong passing attacks in future games.

Special Teams Miscue by Opponent

UConn missed a potential game-winning field goal in the fourth quarter due to a slip in rainy conditions. Rice capitalized on this mistake, highlighting the importance of special teams execution.

What were the weather conditions for UConn vs Rice?

At kickoff, conditions at Rice Stadium were Partly cloudy, 75°F with winds of 11 mph. Gusts reaching 22 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

UConn travels 1,519 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

UConn arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Rice won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Rice covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 22.5 points.

How do UConn and Rice compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor UConn (-3.2) over Rice (-14.6) by 11.4 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Rice faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Rice brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.7). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Model & Methodology

Rice won and Rice covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 25, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

75°F

Rain0%

Precip0.00"

Humidity90%

Wind11 mph S

Gusts22 mph

Wind map for UConn at Rice: aerial view of Rice Stadium, wind from the S at 10.7 mph, gusting to 21.7 mph

Quick facts

Week: Week 9
Kickoff (local): 02:00 PM CDT
Venue: Rice Stadium
Capacity: 47,000
Elevation: 66 ft
Surface: Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure	UConnAway	RiceHome
This week	1,519 miles	0 miles
Last week	169 miles	Bye week
Season total	3,180 miles	5,160 miles
Body clock	15:00	14:00
Rest	7 days	14 days