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Week 9 •
Center Parc Stadium

South Alabama38 @FINAL 31Georgia State

1-6 Sun Belt Power rating: -11.0
1-6 Sun Belt Power rating: -14.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
USA -6.0
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
USA -2.5
Edge
+3.5GAST
See details
◂ favors USAfavors GAST ▸Market: USA -6.0
USA
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
GAST
USA
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 USA2 GAST4 USA4 GASTModel: USA -2.5

Betting information

Spread
USA -6.0
Total
53.5
Odds implied score
USA 29.8 – 23.8 GAST

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

South Alabama defeated Georgia State 38–31 in a one-score game. South Alabama covered by 1.0; Game went Over by 15.5. The market closed at South Alabama -6.0 and the Blue Chip model made it South Alabama -2.5 - a gap of 3.5 points toward Georgia State, of which 2.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for South Alabama vs Georgia State?

At kickoff, conditions at Center Parc Stadium were Clear, 65°F with winds of 2 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

South Alabama travels 306 miles to this game, a short road trip.

South Alabama arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

South Alabama won by 7 in a one-score game.

South Alabama covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 15.5 points.

How do South Alabama and Georgia State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor South Alabama (-11.0) over Georgia State (-14.5) by 3.5 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Georgia State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Georgia State brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on South Alabama and Georgia State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

South Alabama won and South Alabama covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 23, 2025 Game-time

Clear

65°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity40%
Wind2 mph NW
Gusts4 mph
Wind map for South Alabama at Georgia State: aerial view of Center Parc Stadium, wind from the NW at 2.2 mph, gusting to 4.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 9
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM EDT
Venue
Center Parc Stadium
Capacity
24,333
Elevation
978 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

South AlabamaAway Georgia StateHome
This week306 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game353 miles
Season total2,132 miles1,381 miles
Body clock18:3019:30
Rest9 days5 days

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