DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026
Pittsburgh defeated NC State 53–34 to secure a comfortable win. Pittsburgh covered by 14.5; Game went Over by 34.5. The market closed at Pittsburgh -4.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Pittsburgh -9.1 - a gap of 4.6 points toward Pittsburgh, of which 3.6 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.
The Wolfpack defense, especially the secondary, was exposed again, allowing 423 passing yards and 3 TDs to freshman QB Mason Heintschel. This follows a week where they gave up 342 yards to Notre Dame, indicating a persistent weakness that opponents can exploit.
QB CJ Bailey threw for 225 yards and 3 TDs, and the team executed a successful double-pass for a 59-yard TD. However, the offense couldn't keep pace with Pitt's scoring, highlighting a need for more sustained drives and better red zone efficiency.
Despite being the ACC's leading rusher, Smothers managed only 86 yards on 8 carries, including a 65-yard TD. When the team falls behind, his effectiveness is reduced, as the game script forces passing situations.
Joly scored on a 59-yard double-pass but limped the last 20 yards after tweaking his left leg. His status for next week is uncertain, which could impact the passing game against Georgia Tech.
NC State hosts a ranked Georgia Tech team next Saturday. To compete, they must improve defensive consistency and find ways to keep Smothers involved throughout the game, while also addressing the secondary's vulnerabilities.
At kickoff, conditions at Acrisure Stadium were Partly cloudy, 51°F with winds of 2 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Partly cloudy
51°F
| Measure | NC StateAway | PittsburghHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 328 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Bye week | 537 miles |
| Season total | 1,691 miles | 2,109 miles |
| Body clock | 15:30 | 15:30 |
| Rest | 14 days | 7 days |
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