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Week 9 •
Jack Trice Stadium

BYU41 @FINAL 27Iowa State

7-0 Big 12 Power rating: 17.8
5-2 Big 12 Power rating: 11.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ISU -2.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
BYU -2.9
Edge
-5.4BYU
See details
◂ favors BYUfavors ISU ▸Market: ISU -2.5
‹ 6.8 BYU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ISU
ISU
ISU
no impact
no impact
2 BYU2 ISU4 BYU4 ISU6 BYU6 ISUModel: BYU -2.9

Betting information

Spread
ISU -2.5
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
BYU 23.0 – 25.5 ISU

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

BYU defeated Iowa State 41–27 in a double-digit victory. BYU covered by 16.5; Game went Over by 19.5. The market closed at Iowa State -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it BYU -2.9 - a gap of 5.4 points toward BYU, of which 4.1 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for BYU vs Iowa State?

Iowa State

Turnover Troubles Continue

Quarterback Rocco Becht threw a career-high three interceptions, including a pick-six in the fourth quarter that sealed the loss. This marks the third straight game with critical turnovers, a trend that must be reversed against Arizona State.

Inability to Close Out Games

Iowa State led 24-10 late in the first half but allowed BYU to rally and take control. The Cyclones have now lost three consecutive games for the first time since 2022, highlighting a pattern of letting opponents back into games.

Running Game Bright Spot

Carson Hansen rushed for 152 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries, providing a strong ground attack. This performance suggests the run game can be a key weapon if the passing game stabilizes.

Defensive Lapses in Key Moments

The defense allowed BYU to convert two fourth downs on a go-ahead drive and gave up a 27-yard touchdown pass under pressure. A muffed punt recovery by BYU also shifted momentum, indicating a need for better execution in critical situations.

Urgent Need for Consistency

Coach Matt Campbell cited a lack of execution in critical moments as a recurring issue. With a home game against Arizona State next, the Cyclones must address these inconsistencies to snap their losing streak.

What were the weather conditions for BYU vs Iowa State?

At kickoff, conditions at Jack Trice Stadium were Overcast, 48°F, wind chill 43°F with winds of 10 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

BYU travels 946 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

BYU arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

BYU won by 14 in a double-digit victory.

BYU covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 19.5 points.

How do BYU and Iowa State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor BYU (17.8) over Iowa State (11.0) by 6.8 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Iowa State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Iowa State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on BYU and Iowa State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

BYU won and BYU covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 25, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

48°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity86%
Wind10 mph SE
Gusts13 mph
Wind chill43°F
Wind map for BYU at Iowa State: aerial view of Jack Trice Stadium, wind from the SE at 9.6 mph, gusting to 13.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 9
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CDT
Venue
Jack Trice Stadium
Capacity
61,500
Elevation
915 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

BYUAway Iowa StateHome
This week946 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total6,510 miles10,974 miles
Body clock13:3014:30
Rest6 days14 days

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