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Week 9 •
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

South Florida31 @FINAL 34Memphis

6-1 American Power rating: 12.5
6-1 American Power rating: 7.7

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
USF -3.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
USF -2.0
Edge
+1.5MEM
See details
◂ favors USFfavors MEM ▸Market: USF -3.5
‹ 4.8 USF
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MEM
no impact
MEM
no impact
MEM
1 USF1 MEM2 USF2 MEMModel: USF -2.0

Betting information

Spread
USF -3.5
Total
58.5
Odds implied score
USF 31.0 – 27.5 MEM

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Memphis defeated South Florida 34–31 in a nail-biter. Memphis covered by 6.5; Game went Over by 6.5. The market closed at South Florida -3.5 and the Blue Chip model made it South Florida -2.0, an edge of 1.5 points toward Memphis. Blue Chip Analytics had rated South Florida 4.8 points stronger on a neutral field.

What were the weather conditions for South Florida vs Memphis?

At kickoff, conditions at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium were Overcast, 74°F with winds of 11 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

South Florida travels 660 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

South Florida arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Memphis won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Memphis covered the spread.

The total went Over by 6.5 points.

How do South Florida and Memphis compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor South Florida (12.5) over Memphis (7.7) by 4.8 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Memphis faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Memphis brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on South Florida and Memphis?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Memphis won and Memphis covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 25, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

74°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity39%
Wind11 mph SSE
Gusts17 mph
Wind map for South Florida at Memphis: aerial view of Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, wind from the SSE at 11.4 mph, gusting to 17 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 9
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CDT
Venue
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Capacity
50,000
Elevation
315 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

South FloridaAway MemphisHome
This week660 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game424 miles
Season total3,173 miles3,424 miles
Body clock12:0011:00
Rest7 days7 days

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