Week 9
Mackay Stadium

Boise State24 @FINAL 3Nevada , Week 9, Oct 25, 2025

5-2 MW Power rating: 9.2
1-6 MW Power rating: -15.1

How did the line hold up?

Market line
BOIS -21.0
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
BOIS -22.2
Edge
-1.2BOIS
See details
◂ favors BOISfavors NEV ▸Market: BOIS -21.0
‹ 24.3 BOIS
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NEV
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 BOIS1 NEV2 BOIS2 NEVModel: BOIS -22.2

Betting information

Spread
BOIS -21.0
Total
50.5
Odds implied score
BOIS 35.8 – 14.8 NEV

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Boise State defeated Nevada 24–3 to secure a comfortable win. Push covered by 0.0; Game went Under by 23.5. The market closed at Boise State -21.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Boise State -22.2, an edge of 1.2 points toward Boise State.

What are the key factors for Boise State vs Nevada?

Boise State

Ground game dominance

Boise State's rushing attack was the key to victory, with three different players (Madsen, Gaines, Riley) scoring short-yardage touchdowns. The team's ability to sustain long drives (13-play 94-yard and 15-play 80-yard) shows a physical, clock-controlling identity that could be effective against future opponents.

Defensive takeaways and pressure

The Broncos forced five turnovers (three interceptions and two fumbles) and held Nevada to just 247 total yards. This defensive performance, especially against the pass, indicates a unit that can disrupt opposing offenses and create short fields for the offense.

Efficiency in the red zone

Boise State scored touchdowns on all three of their red-zone trips (including a fourth-down conversion), while Nevada managed only a field goal. This efficiency in critical scoring areas is a strong indicator of a team that can finish drives and limit opponent scoring.

Madsen's mixed performance

Quarterback Maddux Madsen threw for 174 yards but also had an interception, completing 15 of 28 passes. While he contributed with a rushing touchdown, his passing inconsistency could be a concern against stronger defenses that can load the box to stop the run.

What were the weather conditions for Boise State vs Nevada?

At kickoff, conditions at Mackay Stadium were Partly cloudy, 42°F, wind chill 38°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Boise State travels 337 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Boise State arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Boise State won by 21 to secure a comfortable win.

Push covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 23.5 points.

How do Boise State and Nevada compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Boise State (9.2) over Nevada (-15.1) by 24.3 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Nevada faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Nevada brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Boise State won and Push covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 25, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

42°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity33%
Wind7 mph SW
Gusts14 mph
Wind chill38°F
Wind map for Boise State at Nevada: aerial view of Mackay Stadium, wind from the SW at 6.7 mph, gusting to 14.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 9
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM PDT
Venue
Mackay Stadium
Capacity
30,000
Elevation
4,619 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure Boise StateAway NevadaHome
This week337 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,577 miles
Season total9,038 miles9,980 miles
Body clock20:0019:00
Rest7 days6 days