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Week 9 •
FirstBank Stadium

Missouri10 @FINAL 17Vanderbilt

6-1 SEC Power rating: 15.9
6-1 SEC Power rating: 17.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
VAN -3.0
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
VAN -2.6
Edge
-0.4MIZ
See details
◂ favors MIZfavors VAN ▸Market: VAN -3.0
VAN
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
VAN
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 MIZ1 VAN2 MIZ2 VANModel: VAN -2.6

Betting information

Spread
VAN -3.0
Total
52.5
Odds implied score
MIZ 24.8 – 27.8 VAN

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Vanderbilt defeated Missouri 17–10 in a one-score game. Vanderbilt covered by 4.0; Game went Under by 25.5. The market closed at Vanderbilt -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Vanderbilt -2.6. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Missouri vs Vanderbilt?

Missouri

Quarterback injury and uncertainty

Starting QB Beau Pribula left the game early in the third quarter with a dislocated ankle and is expected to be out for a while. Freshman Matt Zollers replaced him, completing 14 of 23 passes for 138 yards and a touchdown, but the offense struggled to finish drives.

Offensive struggles against a tough defense

Missouri was held to just 10 points, well below their season average of 39 points per game. The running game was limited to 97 yards by Ahmad Hardy, and the team failed to capitalize on scoring opportunities, including a missed field goal and a fumble that set up Vanderbilt's winning drive.

Playoff hopes still alive despite second loss

Coach Eli Drinkwitz acknowledged that with two SEC losses, a conference championship is unlikely, but the team remains focused on making the playoffs. The loss drops Missouri to 6-2 overall and 2-2 in SEC play, but they have a bye week before hosting No. 3 Texas A&M.

Penalties and missed opportunities

A holding penalty on a key run erased a potential scoring play, and the team committed eight penalties for 83 yards. These mistakes, combined with a missed field goal, proved costly in a low-scoring game.

Defensive performance and key takeaways

Missouri's defense held Vanderbilt to a season-low 265 yards and forced a fumble, but they could not stop the Commodores' game-winning drive. The defense will need to maintain this level of play against a high-powered Texas A&M offense after the bye.

Vanderbilt

Historic start and resilience

Vanderbilt improved to 7-1 (3-1 SEC), their best start since 1941, and earned their first three wins over AP Top 25 teams in program history. They overcame a season-low 265 total yards, eight penalties, and three three-and-outs to win a defensive slugfest.

Clutch defense and turnovers

Safety CJ Heard forced a key fumble recovery with 7:02 left, setting up the winning drive. The defense held Missouri to 10 points despite facing a backup quarterback, and forced a critical stop on the final play to preserve the win.

Diego Pavia's late heroics

Quarterback Diego Pavia scored the game-winning 1-yard touchdown with 1:52 left, capping a drive that survived a controversial fumble review. His leadership in crunch time was pivotal for a team that historically loses close games.

Offensive struggles and big play reliance

Vanderbilt's offense was held to 265 yards, well below their season average of 41.4 points per game. The only touchdown before the final drive was an 80-yard run by Makhilyn Young, highlighting a reliance on explosive plays.

Next game: at No. 22 Texas

Vanderbilt visits Texas on Nov. 1, facing a ranked opponent on the road. Their ability to win despite offensive inefficiency and penalties will be tested against a strong Texas defense.

What were the weather conditions for Missouri vs Vanderbilt?

At kickoff, conditions at FirstBank Stadium were Overcast, 61°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Missouri travels 359 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Vanderbilt won by 7 in a one-score game.

Vanderbilt covered the spread.

The total went Under by 25.5 points.

How do Missouri and Vanderbilt compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Vanderbilt (17.0) over Missouri (15.9) by 1.1 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Vanderbilt brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Missouri and Vanderbilt?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Vanderbilt won and Vanderbilt covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 25, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

61°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity59%
Wind5 mph SE
Gusts10 mph
Wind map for Missouri at Vanderbilt: aerial view of FirstBank Stadium, wind from the SE at 5.1 mph, gusting to 9.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 9
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CDT
Venue
FirstBank Stadium
Capacity
40,350
Elevation
551 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

MissouriAway VanderbiltHome
This week359 miles0 miles
Last week1,163 milesHome game
Season total1,522 miles1,860 miles
Body clock14:3014:30
Rest7 days7 days

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