Auburn defeated Arkansas 33–24 in a two-score game. Auburn covered by 11.5; Game went Over by 0.5.
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At kick-off, conditions at Razorback Stadium were Heavy rain, 55.4°F, Wind Chill 52.0°F with winds of 11.6 mph. Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
55.4°F
After Jackson Arnold threw a pick-six late in the second quarter, Ashton Daniels took over and led three straight scoring drives (all field goals) to start the third quarter, finishing 6 of 8 for 77 yards. This QB switch provided a much-needed spark and could influence the starter decision for next week.
Auburn's defense recorded three interceptions, including Rayshawn Pleasant's 49-yard pick-six that proved to be the game-winner, and forced a fumble. They held Arkansas, the nation's No. 4 total offense, to just 331 yards, well below their 514-yard average.
Jeremiah Cobb rushed for 153 yards on 28 carries, and Auburn won the time-of-possession battle by over 13 minutes. This control allowed the Tigers to limit Arkansas' opportunities and keep the defense fresh.
Alex McPherson made all six field goal attempts (36, 23, 43, 26, 47, 37 yards), accounting for 18 of Auburn's 33 points. His reliability from long range gives the offense a dependable scoring option.
Auburn snapped a four-game losing streak, all against ranked opponents by single digits, to improve to 4-4 (1-4 SEC). This win could boost morale and momentum heading into a home game against Kentucky.
Arkansas committed three turnovers in the fourth quarter, including two interceptions by Taylen Green and a fumble by O'Mega Blake, which directly led to Auburn points and sealed the loss.
Despite entering the game ranked fourth in FBS in total offense (514 ypg), Arkansas was held to 331 yards and struggled to sustain drives, losing the time of possession battle by over 13 minutes.
After a strong 21-point second quarter, Arkansas was outscored 23-3 in the second half, failing to score a touchdown after halftime and allowing Auburn to chip away with field goals.
The Razorbacks allowed Auburn to convert a key fourth-and-1 late in the game and gave up 153 rushing yards to Jeremiah Cobb, highlighting issues in run defense and situational stops.
Bobby Petrino lost his third straight game since taking over, and the loss guarantees Arkansas a 10th consecutive season without a winning SEC record, indicating systemic issues.
Auburn travels 551 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.
Auburn won by 9 in a two-score game.
Auburn covered the spread by a solid margin.
The total went Over by 0.5 points.
Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals.
Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings rate Auburn (11.9) and Arkansas (11.5) as essentially equal on a neutral field. In this range, HFA, travel, rest, and weather context carry more weight than the raw rating differential. Arkansas brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Auburn won and Auburn covered the spread.
