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Week 9 •
Razorback Stadium

Auburn33 @FINAL 24Arkansas

3-4 SEC Power rating: 11.9
2-5 SEC Power rating: 11.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ARK -2.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
ARK -0.7
Edge
-1.8AUB
See details
◂ favors AUBfavors ARK ▸Market: ARK -2.5
AUB
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ARK
no impact
no impact
no impact
ARK
1 AUB1 ARK2 AUB2 ARKModel: ARK -0.7

Betting information

Spread
ARK -2.5
Total
56.5
Odds implied score
AUB 27.0 – 29.5 ARK

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Auburn defeated Arkansas 33–24 in a two-score game. Auburn covered by 11.5; Game went Over by 0.5. The market closed at Arkansas -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Arkansas -0.7, an edge of 1.8 points toward Auburn.

What are the key factors for Auburn vs Arkansas?

Auburn

Quarterback change sparks offense

After Jackson Arnold threw a pick-six late in the second quarter, Ashton Daniels took over and led three straight scoring drives (all field goals) to start the third quarter, finishing 6 of 8 for 77 yards. This QB switch provided a much-needed spark and could influence the starter decision for next week.

Defense forces key turnovers

Auburn's defense recorded three interceptions, including Rayshawn Pleasant's 49-yard pick-six that proved to be the game-winner, and forced a fumble. They held Arkansas, the nation's No. 4 total offense, to just 331 yards, well below their 514-yard average.

Running game dominates time of possession

Jeremiah Cobb rushed for 153 yards on 28 carries, and Auburn won the time-of-possession battle by over 13 minutes. This control allowed the Tigers to limit Arkansas' opportunities and keep the defense fresh.

Kicking game provides consistent scoring

Alex McPherson made all six field goal attempts (36, 23, 43, 26, 47, 37 yards), accounting for 18 of Auburn's 33 points. His reliability from long range gives the offense a dependable scoring option.

First SEC win ends losing streak

Auburn snapped a four-game losing streak, all against ranked opponents by single digits, to improve to 4-4 (1-4 SEC). This win could boost morale and momentum heading into a home game against Kentucky.

Arkansas

Turnover Troubles

Arkansas committed three turnovers in the fourth quarter, including two interceptions by Taylen Green and a fumble by O'Mega Blake, which directly led to Auburn points and sealed the loss.

Offensive Inefficiency

Despite entering the game ranked fourth in FBS in total offense (514 ypg), Arkansas was held to 331 yards and struggled to sustain drives, losing the time of possession battle by over 13 minutes.

Second-Half Collapse

After a strong 21-point second quarter, Arkansas was outscored 23-3 in the second half, failing to score a touchdown after halftime and allowing Auburn to chip away with field goals.

Defensive Lapses

The Razorbacks allowed Auburn to convert a key fourth-and-1 late in the game and gave up 153 rushing yards to Jeremiah Cobb, highlighting issues in run defense and situational stops.

Interim Coach Struggles

Bobby Petrino lost his third straight game since taking over, and the loss guarantees Arkansas a 10th consecutive season without a winning SEC record, indicating systemic issues.

What were the weather conditions for Auburn vs Arkansas?

At kickoff, conditions at Razorback Stadium were Heavy rain, 55°F with winds of 12 mph. A 100% chance of rain with around 0.46 inches expected points to a genuinely wet field. Ball security and the kicking game are the exposures. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Auburn travels 551 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Auburn won by 9 in a two-score game.

Auburn covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 0.5 points.

How do Auburn and Arkansas compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings rate Auburn (11.9) and Arkansas (11.5) as essentially equal on a neutral field. In this range, home field, travel, rest, and weather context carry more weight than the raw rating differential. Arkansas brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 0.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Auburn and Arkansas?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Auburn won and Auburn covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 25, 2025 Game-time

Heavy rain

55°F

Rain100%
Precip0.46"
Humidity96%
Wind12 mph SSE
Gusts17 mph
Wind map for Auburn at Arkansas: aerial view of Razorback Stadium, wind from the SSE at 11.6 mph, gusting to 17.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 9
Kickoff (local)
11:45 AM CDT
Venue
Razorback Stadium
Capacity
76,212
Elevation
1,358 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

AuburnAway ArkansasHome
This week551 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total4,649 miles2,215 miles
Body clock11:4511:45
Rest7 days7 days

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