DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026
Michigan defeated Michigan State 31–20 in a double-digit victory. Michigan State covered by 2.5; Game went Over by 3.5. The market closed at Michigan -13.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Michigan -8.6 - a gap of 4.9 points toward Michigan State, of which 4.2 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.
The Spartans turned the ball over on downs twice in the fourth quarter, including a failed fourth-and-3 from the Michigan 27 and a fourth-and-1 from the Wolverines 29, which sealed the loss. Quarterback Aidan Chiles also lost a fumble early in the game, leading to a Michigan field goal.
Michigan State committed 12 penalties for 105 yards, which extended Michigan drives and negated a key fumble recovery. Coach Jonathan Smith cited 'sloppy play' as a major factor in the loss.
Aidan Chiles completed 14 of 28 passes for 130 yards, lost a fumble, and graded himself a 'D-'. He was replaced late by Alessio Milivojevic, who threw a garbage-time touchdown pass.
Makhi Frazier rushed for a career-high 109 yards, providing a spark on the ground. However, the offense overall was inconsistent and failed to capitalize on opportunities.
Michigan State (3-5, 0-5 Big Ten) will travel to face Minnesota on November 1. The Spartans need to clean up penalties and improve quarterback play to have a chance against the Golden Gophers.
At kickoff, conditions at Spartan Stadium were Cloudy, 43°F, wind chill 40°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Cloudy
43°F
| Measure | MichiganAway | Michigan StateHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 49 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | 534 miles |
| Season total | 7,075 miles | 5,656 miles |
| Body clock | 19:30 | 19:30 |
| Rest | 7 days | 7 days |
