Week 9
Nippert Stadium

Baylor20 @FINAL 41Cincinnati , Week 9, Oct 25, 2025

4-3 Big 12 Power rating: 10.5
6-1 Big 12 Power rating: 10.6

How did the line hold up?

Market line
CIN -3.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
CIN -2.9
Edge
-0.7BAY
See details
◂ favors BAYfavors CIN ▸Market: CIN -3.5
CIN
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1 BAY1 CIN2 BAY2 CIN3 BAY3 CINModel: CIN -2.9

Betting information

Spread
CIN -3.5
Total
68.5
Odds implied score
BAY 32.5 – 36.0 CIN

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Cincinnati defeated Baylor 41–20 to secure a comfortable win. Cincinnati covered by 17.5; Game went Under by 7.5. The market closed at Cincinnati -3.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Cincinnati -2.9. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Baylor vs Cincinnati?

Baylor

Slow start proved costly

Baylor fell behind 24-0 late in the first half, and despite a spirited comeback to cut the lead to 27-20 early in the fourth quarter, the early deficit was too much to overcome. The team must focus on starting faster to avoid digging a hole against future opponents.

Sawyer Robertson's struggles against strong defense

Robertson, who entered the game leading the nation in passing yards and touchdowns, was held to a season-low 137 passing yards by Cincinnati's defense. This indicates that Baylor's passing attack can be neutralized by disciplined coverage and pressure, which may be a concern against upcoming defenses.

Inability to get key stops in crunch time

After cutting the lead to seven points early in the fourth quarter, Baylor's defense allowed a 12-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that consumed over seven minutes, effectively sealing the game. The Bears need to improve their ability to force stops in high-leverage situations.

Turnovers hurt momentum

A fumble by Josh Cameron on a catch led to a Cincinnati touchdown that extended the lead to 24-0 just before halftime. Protecting the ball and avoiding giveaways will be critical for Baylor to stay competitive in future games.

Fight and resilience shown in comeback attempt

Despite the early deficit, Baylor showed fight by scoring 20 unanswered points to get back into the game. This resilience is a positive sign, but the team must learn to play with that urgency from the opening kickoff.

Cincinnati

Dominant rushing attack

Cincinnati rushed for 265 yards, led by Brendan Sorsby's 85 yards and a TD, and Tawee Walker's 1-yard TD run. This physical ground game controlled the clock and wore down Baylor's defense.

Defensive containment of top passer

The Bearcats held Baylor's Sawyer Robertson, the nation's leader in passing yards and TDs, to a season-low 137 yards passing. This defensive performance was key to building a 24-0 lead.

Perfect kicking game

Kicker Stephen Rusnak made both field goal attempts, improving to 11-for-11 on the season and extending his streak to 22 straight makes. He is the only kicker in the country without a miss since the start of 2024.

Seven-game winning streak

Cincinnati has won seven straight for the first time since 2021, tying them with BYU for first place in the Big 12. This momentum and confidence will be crucial for the upcoming road game at Utah.

Next opponent: Utah

Cincinnati travels to Utah on Saturday. The Bearcats will need to maintain their balanced offense and strong defense against a tough Utah team, especially after a physical win over Baylor.

What were the weather conditions for Baylor vs Cincinnati?

At kickoff, conditions at Nippert Stadium were Overcast, 55°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Baylor travels 881 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Baylor arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Cincinnati won by 21 to secure a comfortable win.

Cincinnati covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 7.5 points.

How do Baylor and Cincinnati compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings rate Baylor (10.5) and Cincinnati (10.6) as essentially equal on a neutral field. In this range, home field, travel, rest, and weather context carry more weight than the raw rating differential. Cincinnati brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Cincinnati won and Cincinnati covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 25, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

55°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity58%
Wind5 mph E
Gusts9 mph
Wind map for Baylor at Cincinnati: aerial view of Nippert Stadium, wind from the E at 4.5 mph, gusting to 8.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 9
Kickoff (local)
04:00 PM EDT
Venue
Nippert Stadium
Capacity
38,088
Elevation
778 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure BaylorAway CincinnatiHome
This week881 miles0 miles
Last week161 miles1,436 miles
Season total1,853 miles3,662 miles
Body clock15:0016:00
Rest7 days6 days