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Week 8 •
Memorial Stadium

North Dakota State38 @FINAL 7Indiana State

6-0 MVFC Power rating: 1.0
0-0 MVFC Power rating: -29.6

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ND St -33.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
ND St -27.9
Edge
+5.7INST
See details
◂ favors ND Stfavors INST ▸Market: ND St -33.5
‹ 30.6 ND St
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
INST
no impact
no impact
no impact
INST
2 ND St2 INST4 ND St4 INST6 ND St6 INSTModel: ND St -27.9

Betting information

Spread
ND St -33.5
Total
56.5
Odds implied score
ND St 45.0 – 11.5 INST

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

North Dakota State defeated Indiana State 38–7 in a dominant performance. Indiana State covered by 2.5; Game went Under by 11.5. The market closed at North Dakota State -33.5 and the Blue Chip model made it North Dakota State -27.9 - a gap of 5.7 points toward Indiana State, of which 4.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for North Dakota State vs Indiana State?

At kickoff, conditions at Memorial Stadium were Heavy rain, 70°F with winds of 13 mph. A 100% chance of rain with around 0.33 inches expected points to a genuinely wet field. Ball security and the kicking game are the exposures. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

North Dakota State travels 699 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

North Dakota State arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

North Dakota State won by 31 in a dominant performance.

Indiana State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 11.5 points.

How do North Dakota State and Indiana State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor North Dakota State (1.0) over Indiana State (-29.6) by 30.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Indiana State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Indiana State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on North Dakota State and Indiana State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

North Dakota State won and Indiana State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 18, 2025 Game-time

Heavy rain

70°F

Rain100%
Precip0.33"
Humidity95%
Wind13 mph SSW
Gusts20 mph
Wind map for North Dakota State at Indiana State: aerial view of Memorial Stadium, wind from the SSW at 13.2 mph, gusting to 19.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 8
Kickoff (local)
01:00 PM EDT
Venue
Memorial Stadium
Capacity
12,764
Elevation
509 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

North Dakota StateAway Indiana StateHome
This week699 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total6,319 miles99 miles
Body clock12:0013:00
Rest7 days7 days

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