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Week 8 •
FirstBank Stadium

LSU24 @FINAL 31Vanderbilt

5-1 SEC Power rating: 15.8
5-1 SEC Power rating: 16.4

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
VAN -1.5
PM Implied
VAN -1.0
Blue Chip model
VAN -3.1
Edge
+1.6VAN
See details
◂ favors LSUfavors VAN ▸Market: VAN -1.5
VAN
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
VAN
VAN
no impact
no impact
VAN
1 LSU1 VAN2 LSU2 VANModel: VAN -3.1

Betting information

Spread
VAN -1.5
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
LSU 23.5 – 25.0 VAN
Prediction markets
VAN 55% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Vanderbilt defeated LSU 31–24 in a one-score game. Vanderbilt covered by 5.5; Game went Over by 6.5. The market closed at Vanderbilt -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Vanderbilt -3.1, an edge of 1.6 points toward Vanderbilt.

What are the key factors for LSU vs Vanderbilt?

LSU

Red zone struggles cost the game

LSU settled for field goals on multiple drives, including a 51-yard run to the Vanderbilt 2-yard line that resulted in only 3 points. Damian Ramos made kicks of 48, 42, and 23 yards but missed a 52-yarder, leaving points on the board.

Defense exposed after strong start

LSU entered the game ranked 5th nationally allowing 11.8 points per game but gave up 31 points to Vanderbilt, the most this season. The defense struggled to contain Diego Pavia, who accounted for 246 total yards and 3 touchdowns.

Rushing attack ineffective

The Tigers struggled to run the ball against a Vanderbilt defense ranked 16th nationally, limiting their ability to control the clock and sustain drives. This forced more reliance on the passing game.

Missed opportunities on offense

Despite big plays like Garrett Nussmeier's 62-yard touchdown pass to Zavion Thomas and Caden Durham's 51-yard run, LSU failed to capitalize on scoring chances, leading to a loss in a game where they had opportunities to win.

Next up: Host No. 4 Texas A&M

LSU will face a tough test at home against undefeated Texas A&M on October 25. The Tigers must improve red zone efficiency and rushing attack to compete with a top-5 opponent.

Vanderbilt

Historic Win and Bowl Eligibility

Vanderbilt improved to 6-1 for the first time since 1950, snapping a 10-game losing streak to LSU and becoming bowl eligible. This marks a significant milestone for the program, which has traditionally aimed for bowl eligibility as a top goal.

Diego Pavia's Heisman-Caliber Performance

Quarterback Diego Pavia threw for 160 yards and a touchdown, and rushed for 86 yards and two more scores, including a 21-yard run where he struck a Heisman pose. His ability to take over games has been a game-changer for the Commodores.

Defensive Resilience Against LSU

Vanderbilt's defense, ranked 16th nationally against the run, forced LSU to settle for four field goals, including a missed 52-yarder. Key plays like Zaylin Wood's sack on LSU's final drive prevented any comeback threat.

Offensive Efficiency and Scoring Prowess

Vanderbilt's offense, averaging 43.2 points per game (7th nationally), scored the most points LSU has allowed this season. The Commodores punted only twice, both in the fourth quarter, showcasing their ability to sustain drives.

Next Game: Hosting No. 16 Missouri

Vanderbilt will host No. 16 Missouri on October 25. With momentum from this win and a 2-1 SEC record, the Commodores will look to continue their historic season against another ranked opponent.

What were the weather conditions for LSU vs Vanderbilt?

At kickoff, conditions at FirstBank Stadium were Sunny, 82°F, heat index 85°F with winds of 13 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

LSU travels 469 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Vanderbilt won by 7 in a one-score game.

Vanderbilt covered the spread.

The total went Over by 6.5 points.

How do LSU and Vanderbilt compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Vanderbilt (16.4) over LSU (15.8) by 0.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Vanderbilt brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on LSU and Vanderbilt?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Vanderbilt won and Vanderbilt covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 18, 2025 Game-time

Sunny

82°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity56%
Wind13 mph S
Gusts17 mph
Heat index85°F
Wind map for LSU at Vanderbilt: aerial view of FirstBank Stadium, wind from the S at 12.5 mph, gusting to 16.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 8
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CDT
Venue
FirstBank Stadium
Capacity
40,350
Elevation
551 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

LSUAway VanderbiltHome
This week469 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total2,183 miles1,860 miles
Body clock11:0011:00
Rest7 days14 days

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