26 Final 23 38 Final 61 13 Final 20 30 Final 24 34 Final 6 31 Final 34 34 Final 41 16 Final 35 19 Final 16 38 Final 35 14 Final 28 28 Final 31 38 Final 45 14 Final 42 24 Final 20 13 Final 6 20 Final 59 49 Final 51 23 Final 52 24 Final 37 38 Final 17 24 Final 25 28 Final 27 20 Final 35 10 Final 21 24 Final 27 56 Final 21 31 Final 39 24 Final 31 20 Final 31 49 Final 39 10 Final 13 23 Final 15 10 Final 28 17 Final 34 49 Final 27 17 Final 28 20 Final 24 21 Final 14 13 Final 28 31 Final 35 0 Final 26 31 Final 10 49 Final 56 20 Final 16 24 Final 57 32 Final 38 3 Final 39 17 Final 20 7 Final 24 27 Final 34 17 Final 34 31 Final 30 42 Final 19 @ @
Week 8 •
Scheumann Stadium

Akron28 @FINAL 42Ball State

2-5 MAC Power rating: -17.2
2-4 MAC Power rating: -19.7

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
AKR -2.5
PM Implied
AKR -0.5
Blue Chip model
BALL -1.0
Edge
+3.5BALL
See details
◂ favors AKRfavors BALL ▸Market: AKR -2.5
AKR
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
BALL
no impact
no impact
no impact
BALL
2 AKR2 BALL4 AKR4 BALLModel: BALL -1.0

Betting information

Spread
AKR -2.5
Total
44.5
Odds implied score
AKR 23.5 – 21.0 BALL
Prediction markets
AKR 52% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Ball State defeated Akron 42–28 in a double-digit victory. Ball State covered by 16.5; Game went Over by 25.5. The market closed at Akron -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Ball State -1.0 - a gap of 3.5 points toward Ball State, of which 2.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Akron vs Ball State?

Ball State

Strong rushing attack

Ball State rushed for 143 yards from Qua Ashley and three touchdowns from Kiael Kelly, establishing a dominant ground game that controlled the clock and wore down Akron's defense.

Special teams impact

TJ Horton's 90-yard kickoff return for a touchdown sealed the win, highlighting the Cardinals' ability to make game-changing plays on special teams.

Defensive resilience

Despite allowing 291 passing yards and three touchdowns, Ball State's defense forced two interceptions and held Akron to field goals in key moments, including a stop that set up Horton's return.

Second-half adjustments

After trailing 15-14 at halftime, Ball State outscored Akron 28-13 in the second half, showing improved execution and adjustments on both sides of the ball.

What were the weather conditions for Akron vs Ball State?

At kickoff, conditions at Scheumann Stadium were Moderate or heavy rain shower, 70°F with winds of 14 mph. Gusts reaching 25 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. A 100% chance of rain with around 0.31 inches expected points to a genuinely wet field. Ball security and the kicking game are the exposures. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Akron travels 214 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Ball State won by 14 in a double-digit victory.

Ball State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 25.5 points.

How do Akron and Ball State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Akron (-17.2) over Ball State (-19.7) by 2.5 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Ball State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Ball State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Akron and Ball State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Ball State won and Ball State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 18, 2025 Game-time

Moderate or heavy rain shower

70°F

Rain100%
Precip0.31"
Humidity87%
Wind14 mph SSW
Gusts25 mph
Wind map for Akron at Ball State: aerial view of Scheumann Stadium, wind from the SSW at 13.9 mph, gusting to 24.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 8
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM EDT
Venue
Scheumann Stadium
Capacity
16,319
Elevation
951 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

AkronAway Ball StateHome
This week214 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game286 miles
Season total3,228 miles2,852 miles
Body clock15:3015:30
Rest7 days7 days

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