DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026
Ball State defeated Akron 42–28 in a double-digit victory. Ball State covered by 16.5; Game went Over by 25.5. The market closed at Akron -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Ball State -1.0 - a gap of 3.5 points toward Ball State, of which 2.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.
Ball State rushed for 143 yards from Qua Ashley and three touchdowns from Kiael Kelly, establishing a dominant ground game that controlled the clock and wore down Akron's defense.
TJ Horton's 90-yard kickoff return for a touchdown sealed the win, highlighting the Cardinals' ability to make game-changing plays on special teams.
Despite allowing 291 passing yards and three touchdowns, Ball State's defense forced two interceptions and held Akron to field goals in key moments, including a stop that set up Horton's return.
After trailing 15-14 at halftime, Ball State outscored Akron 28-13 in the second half, showing improved execution and adjustments on both sides of the ball.
At kickoff, conditions at Scheumann Stadium were Moderate or heavy rain shower, 70°F with winds of 14 mph. Gusts reaching 25 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. A 100% chance of rain with around 0.31 inches expected points to a genuinely wet field. Ball security and the kicking game are the exposures. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Moderate or heavy rain shower
70°F
| Measure | AkronAway | Ball StateHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 214 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | 286 miles |
| Season total | 3,228 miles | 2,852 miles |
| Body clock | 15:30 | 15:30 |
| Rest | 7 days | 7 days |
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