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Week 8 •
Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium

Purdue0 @FINAL 19Northwestern

2-4 Big Ten Power rating: -1.3
4-2 Big Ten Power rating: 6.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
NU -3.0
PM Implied
NU -2.6
Blue Chip model
NU -10.3
Edge
+7.3NU
See details
◂ favors PURfavors NU ▸Market: NU -3.0
NU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
NU
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
5 PUR5 NUModel: NU -10.3

Betting information

Spread
NU -3.0
Total
47.5
Odds implied score
PUR 22.3 – 25.3 NU
Prediction markets
NU 61% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Northwestern defeated Purdue 19–0 to secure a comfortable win. Northwestern covered by 16.0; Game went Under by 28.5. The market closed at Northwestern -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Northwestern -10.3 - a gap of 7.3 points toward Northwestern, of which 6.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Purdue vs Northwestern?

Purdue

Offensive Struggles Continue

Purdue managed only 11 first downs and was shut out for the first time this season, with quarterback Ryan Browne exiting early due to a shoulder injury and backup Malachi Singleton throwing a key interception.

Penalties and Turnovers Plague Team

The Boilermakers committed eight penalties for 85 yards and two fumbles, continuing a pattern of mistakes that have contributed to their fifth straight loss and 13th consecutive conference defeat.

Rushing Attack Ineffective

Purdue's ground game was limited, with Malachi Thomas leading the team with only 34 rushing yards, failing to establish any balance or control the clock against Northwestern's defense.

Defense Shows Resilience Despite Loss

While the offense struggled, the defense held Northwestern to 19 points, but the unit was on the field for 38 minutes due to offensive inefficiency, limiting their ability to create stops.

Next Up: Home vs Rutgers

Purdue hosts Rutgers next Saturday, needing to address offensive consistency and reduce penalties to snap their losing streak and improve their 0-4 conference record.

Northwestern

Dominant Running Game and Time of Possession

Northwestern rushed 50 times for 232 yards, controlling the clock for 38 minutes to Purdue's 22. This ground-and-pound approach sets the offensive identity and could be key against Nebraska's defense.

Defensive Shutout and Turnover Creation

The Wildcats defense recorded a shutout, limiting Purdue to 11 first downs and forcing two fumbles (one lost). This unit's ability to stifle opponents and create turnovers will be crucial on the road at Nebraska.

Preston Stone's Efficient Passing

Stone threw for 132 yards and 2 TDs on 11-of-26 passing, connecting with Griffin Wilde for a touchdown (Wilde's fourth straight game with a TD). While not high volume, his efficiency in the red zone and ability to hit big plays adds a necessary dimension to the offense.

Injury Concerns in Backfield

Caleb Komolafe left with an upper-body injury in the third quarter, though coach Braun is optimistic he'll play next week. His 67 rushing yards were vital, and his availability is important for maintaining the run-heavy game plan against Nebraska.

Momentum from Four-Game Win Streak

Northwestern has won four straight, including a dramatic win at Penn State, and now sits at 5-2 (3-1 Big Ten). This confidence and resilience, especially in close games, could be a factor in a tough road environment at Nebraska.

What were the weather conditions for Purdue vs Northwestern?

At kickoff, conditions at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium were Partly cloudy, 70°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Purdue travels 119 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Purdue arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Northwestern won by 19 to secure a comfortable win.

Northwestern covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 28.5 points.

How do Purdue and Northwestern compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Northwestern (6.0) over Purdue (-1.3) by 7.3 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Northwestern brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Purdue and Northwestern?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Northwestern won and Northwestern covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 18, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

70°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity72%
Wind5 mph SSW
Gusts9 mph
Wind map for Purdue at Northwestern: aerial view of Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium, wind from the SSW at 4.7 mph, gusting to 8.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 8
Kickoff (local)
02:00 PM CDT
Venue
Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
Capacity
12,023
Elevation
581 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

PurdueAway NorthwesternHome
This week119 miles0 miles
Last week897 miles1,033 miles
Season total1,204 miles2,726 miles
Body clock15:0014:00
Rest7 days7 days

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