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Week 8 •
Peden Stadium

Northern Illinois21 @FINAL 48Ohio

1-5 MAC Power rating: -12.6
3-3 MAC Power rating: -0.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
OHIO -10.5
PM Implied
OHIO -8.4
Blue Chip model
OHIO -16.4
Edge
+5.9OHIO
See details
◂ favors NIUfavors OHIO ▸Market: OHIO -10.5
12.3 › OHIO
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
OHIO
OHIO
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 NIU2 OHIO4 NIU4 OHIO6 NIU6 OHIOModel: OHIO -16.4

Betting information

Spread
OHIO -10.5
Total
41.5
Odds implied score
NIU 15.5 – 26.0 OHIO
Prediction markets
OHIO 80% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Ohio defeated Northern Illinois 48–21 to secure a comfortable win. Ohio covered by 16.5; Game went Over by 27.5. The market closed at Ohio -10.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Ohio -16.4 - a gap of 5.9 points toward Ohio, of which 4.9 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Northern Illinois vs Ohio?

Northern Illinois

Offensive struggles and red zone inefficiency

The Huskies managed only 293 total yards compared to Ohio's 538, and their offense failed to sustain drives, with five of the first seven possessions ending in punts. This lack of offensive consistency will need to be addressed to compete in future games.

Defensive vulnerability against the run

Ohio's ground game dominated, with Sieh Bangura and Duncan Brune combining for 273 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Northern Illinois' defense allowed 538 total yards and was 5-for-5 in red zone defense, indicating a critical weakness that opponents will exploit.

Quarterback performance and turnovers

Josh Holst completed 21 of 29 passes for 161 yards and two touchdowns, but the offense struggled overall. A costly fumble returned 91 yards for a touchdown by Ohio's Jalen Thomeson late in the game highlighted turnover issues that must be minimized.

Record and momentum concerns

Falling to 1-6 overall and 0-3 in MAC play, the Huskies are in a deep hole. The lack of competitive performance against Ohio suggests significant adjustments are needed to turn the season around.

What were the weather conditions for Northern Illinois vs Ohio?

At kickoff, conditions at Peden Stadium were Partly cloudy, 73°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Northern Illinois travels 394 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Northern Illinois arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Ohio won by 27 to secure a comfortable win.

Ohio covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 27.5 points.

How do Northern Illinois and Ohio compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Ohio (-0.3) over Northern Illinois (-12.6) by 12.3 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Ohio brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Northern Illinois and Ohio?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Ohio won and Ohio covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 18, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

73°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity69%
Wind6 mph SSE
Gusts12 mph
Wind map for Northern Illinois at Ohio: aerial view of Peden Stadium, wind from the SSE at 5.6 mph, gusting to 11.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 8
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM EDT
Venue
Peden Stadium
Capacity
25,210
Elevation
640 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Northern IllinoisAway OhioHome
This week394 miles0 miles
Last week529 milesBye week
Season total3,403 miles1,337 miles
Body clock14:3015:30
Rest7 days14 days

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