Week 8
Protective Stadium

Memphis24 @FINAL 31UAB , Week 8, Oct 18, 2025

6-0 American Power rating: 7.2
2-4 American Power rating: -13.0

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MEM -23.5
PM Implied
MEM -15.9
Blue Chip model
MEM -18.1
Edge
+5.4UAB
See details
◂ favors MEMfavors UAB ▸Market: MEM -23.5
‹ 20.2 MEM
Adjust the power ratings by team
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
UAB
MEM
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 MEM2 UAB4 MEM4 UAB6 MEM6 UABModel: MEM -18.1

Betting information

Spread
MEM -23.5
Total
59.5
Odds implied score
MEM 41.5 – 18.0 UAB
Prediction markets
MEM 93% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

UAB defeated Memphis 31–24 in a one-score game. UAB covered by 30.5; Game went Under by 4.5. The market closed at Memphis -23.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Memphis -18.1 - a gap of 5.4 points toward UAB, of which 4.4 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Memphis 20.2 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Memphis vs UAB?

Memphis

Costly Penalties in Crunch Time

Memphis reached the 1-yard line twice in the final minute but was pushed back by two false starts and a delay-of-game penalty, ultimately failing to score on fourth-and-goal from the 11. This lack of discipline in high-leverage situations cost them the game.

Quarterback Change and Inconsistency

Starter Brendon Lewis was replaced by AJ Hill early in the third quarter. Hill completed only 13 of 25 passes for 175 yards with a touchdown and an interception, highlighting ongoing instability at the quarterback position.

Margin for Error Eliminated

The loss removes any room for error in Memphis's pursuit of the AAC championship and a College Football Playoff berth. They must win out to have a realistic chance at either goal.

Defensive Struggles Against New-Look UAB

Memphis allowed UAB to surpass 450 yards of offense for the first time this season against an FBS opponent, including 219 rushing yards and an 81-yard touchdown run. The defense failed to contain a team that had been struggling offensively.

Critical Upcoming Matchup

Memphis hosts No. 19 South Florida next Saturday in a game that will heavily influence the AAC championship race. A loss would likely end their conference title hopes.

UAB

New offensive spark under interim coach

UAB's offense exploded for over 450 total yards, their first time surpassing that mark against an FBS opponent this season, led by new starting QB Ryder Burton (20/27, 251 yards, 3 TDs) and WR Iverson Hooks (11 catches, 172 yards, 3 TDs).

Resilient goal-line stand seals upset

UAB's defense held No. 22 Memphis at the 1-yard line twice in the final minute, forcing two false starts and a delay of game before an incomplete pass on 4th-and-goal from the 11, preserving a 31-24 win as a 21.5-point home underdog.

Running game provides balance and clock control

The Blazers rushed for 219 yards, their most against an FBS opponent since 2023, including an 81-yard TD run by Solomon Beebe. Two long possessions in the second half milked over 12 minutes off the clock, helping protect the lead.

Emotional win for interim coach Alex Mortensen

In his debut after replacing fired head coach Trent Dilfer, Mortensen emphasized fanatical effort, poise, and staying together, which the team executed down the stretch. The win was especially poignant as Mortensen is the son of late ESPN reporter Chris Mortensen.

Next game: at UConn on Nov. 1

UAB (3-4, 1-3 AAC) will look to build on this momentum when they travel to face UConn. The offensive resurgence and defensive grit shown against Memphis could be key factors in predicting their performance.

What were the weather conditions for Memphis vs UAB?

At kickoff, conditions at Protective Stadium were Partly cloudy, 77°F with winds of 10 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Memphis travels 212 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

UAB won by 7 in a one-score game.

UAB covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 4.5 points.

How do Memphis and UAB compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Memphis (7.2) over UAB (-13.0) by 20.2 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, UAB faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. UAB brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

UAB won and UAB covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 18, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

77°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity64%
Wind10 mph S
Gusts16 mph
Wind map for Memphis at UAB: aerial view of Protective Stadium, wind from the S at 9.6 mph, gusting to 15.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 8
Kickoff (local)
03:00 PM CDT
Venue
Protective Stadium
Capacity
47,100
Elevation
623 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure MemphisAway UABHome
This week212 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week1,271 miles
Season total3,212 miles3,114 miles
Body clock15:0015:00
Rest13 days7 days