Indiana defeated Michigan State 38–13 to secure a comfortable win. Michigan State covered by 1.5; Game went Over by 1.5.
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At kick-off, conditions at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) were Thundery outbreaks possible, 71.2°F, Feels Like 71.2°F with winds of 13.0 mph. Gusts reaching 21.9 mph add unpredictability to the passing game. Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
71.2°F
Michigan State lost its fourth consecutive game by double digits, falling to 3-4 overall and 0-4 in Big Ten play. The Spartans have now lost 10 of their last 12 conference games, highlighting a deep slump.
The Spartans took first-half leads twice, including time-consuming scoring drives of 8:07 and 9:22, showing they can compete with elite teams early. However, they failed to get stops in the second half, allowing Indiana to score on its first five possessions.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles completed 27 of 33 passes for 243 yards and one touchdown, demonstrating accuracy and the ability to move the chains. This performance provides a positive building block for the offense.
Coach Jonathan Smith noted that against a team like Indiana, the Spartans cannot afford mistakes. The inability to make up for errors in the second half underscores the need for cleaner execution to compete with top-tier opponents.
Michigan State hosts Michigan next Saturday. The Spartans will look to snap their losing streak and find positives against a rival that has struggled offensively this season, potentially offering a more favorable matchup.
Michigan State travels 267 miles to this game, a short road trip.
Indiana won by 25 to secure a comfortable win.
Michigan State covered the spread narrowly.
The total went Over by 1.5 points.
Gusts reaching 21.9 mph add unpredictability to the passing game.
Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals.
Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Indiana (29.6) over Michigan State (6.0) by 23.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Indiana brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Indiana won and Michigan State covered the spread.
