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Week 8 •
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)

Michigan State13 @FINAL 38Indiana

3-3 Big Ten Power rating: 6.0
6-0 Big Ten Power rating: 29.6

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
IU -26.5
PM Implied
IU -19.2
Blue Chip model
IU -25.9
Edge
-0.6MSU
See details
◂ favors MSUfavors IU ▸Market: IU -26.5
23.6 › IU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
IU
no impact
no impact
no impact
MSU
1 MSU1 IU2 MSU2 IU3 MSU3 IUModel: IU -25.9

Betting information

Spread
IU -26.5
Total
49.5
Odds implied score
MSU 11.5 – 38.0 IU
Prediction markets
IU 96% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Indiana defeated Michigan State 38–13 to secure a comfortable win. Michigan State covered by 1.5; Game went Over by 1.5. The market closed at Indiana -26.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Indiana -25.9. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Michigan State vs Indiana?

Michigan State

Fourth straight double-digit loss

Michigan State lost its fourth consecutive game by double digits, falling to 3-4 overall and 0-4 in Big Ten play. The Spartans have now lost 10 of their last 12 conference games, highlighting a deep slump.

Early competitiveness but second-half collapse

The Spartans took first-half leads twice, including time-consuming scoring drives of 8:07 and 9:22, showing they can compete with elite teams early. However, they failed to get stops in the second half, allowing Indiana to score on its first five possessions.

Aidan Chiles' efficient passing

Quarterback Aidan Chiles completed 27 of 33 passes for 243 yards and one touchdown, demonstrating accuracy and the ability to move the chains. This performance provides a positive building block for the offense.

Margin for error is slim

Coach Jonathan Smith noted that against a team like Indiana, the Spartans cannot afford mistakes. The inability to make up for errors in the second half underscores the need for cleaner execution to compete with top-tier opponents.

Up next: rivalry game vs. Michigan

Michigan State hosts Michigan next Saturday. The Spartans will look to snap their losing streak and find positives against a rival that has struggled offensively this season, potentially offering a more favorable matchup.

What were the weather conditions for Michigan State vs Indiana?

At kickoff, conditions at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) were Thundery outbreaks possible, 71°F with winds of 13 mph. Gusts reaching 22 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. A 100% chance of rain with around 0.19 inches expected points to a genuinely wet field. Ball security and the kicking game are the exposures. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Michigan State travels 267 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Indiana won by 25 to secure a comfortable win.

Michigan State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 1.5 points.

How do Michigan State and Indiana compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Indiana (29.6) over Michigan State (6.0) by 23.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Indiana brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.6). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Michigan State and Indiana?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Indiana won and Michigan State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 18, 2025 Game-time

Thundery outbreaks possible

71°F

Rain100%
Precip0.19"
Humidity87%
Wind13 mph S
Gusts22 mph
Wind map for Michigan State at Indiana: aerial view of Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN), wind from the S at 13 mph, gusting to 21.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 8
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM EDT
Venue
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Capacity
52,626
Elevation
787 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Michigan StateAway IndianaHome
This week267 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game3,812 miles
Season total5,389 miles4,443 miles
Body clock15:3015:30
Rest7 days7 days

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