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Week 8 •
Joan C. Edwards Stadium

Texas State37 @FINAL 40Marshall

3-3 Sun Belt Power rating: -3.1
3-3 Sun Belt Power rating: -6.7

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TXST -3.0
PM Implied
TXST -1.8
Blue Chip model
TXST -1.4
Edge
+1.6MRSH
See details
◂ favors TXSTfavors MRSH ▸Market: TXST -3.0
‹ 3.6 TXST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MRSH
no impact
MRSH
no impact
no impact
1 TXST1 MRSH2 TXST2 MRSHModel: TXST -1.4

Betting information

Spread
TXST -3.0
Total
65.5
Odds implied score
TXST 34.3 – 31.3 MRSH
Prediction markets
TXST 58% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Marshall defeated Texas State 40–37 in a nail-biter. Marshall covered by 6.0; Game went Over by 11.5. The market closed at Texas State -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Texas State -1.4, an edge of 1.6 points toward Marshall. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Texas State 3.6 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Texas State vs Marshall?

Texas State

High-Powered Passing Attack

Brad Jackson threw for 444 yards (second-most in program history) with two touchdowns and one interception, while Chris Dawn (180 yards) and Beau Sparks (168 yards, 73-yard TD) combined for 348 receiving yards, showing the offense can move the ball effectively through the air.

Overtime Struggles and Missed Opportunities

Texas State forced overtime with a 50-yard field goal as time expired, but managed only a field goal and a touchdown in the two OT periods, while Marshall scored touchdowns on both possessions, highlighting potential issues in clutch scoring situations.

Defensive Vulnerabilities Exposed

The defense allowed Marshall's quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson to pass for 277 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 88 yards, and gave up two overtime rushing touchdowns to Jo'Shon Barbie, indicating struggles against dual-threat quarterbacks and in short-yardage situations.

Resilience and Comeback Ability

Despite trailing and needing a last-second field goal to force overtime, the team showed resilience by rallying late, which could be a positive sign for close games ahead, but the inability to finish in overtime remains a concern.

Sun Belt Conference Record Pressure

Falling to 0-3 in Sun Belt play puts Texas State in a difficult position for bowl eligibility, needing to win most of their remaining conference games, which adds urgency to correct defensive and overtime issues.

What were the weather conditions for Texas State vs Marshall?

At kickoff, conditions at Joan C. Edwards Stadium were Clear, 75°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Texas State travels 1,063 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Texas State arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Marshall won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Marshall covered the spread.

The total went Over by 11.5 points.

How do Texas State and Marshall compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Texas State (-3.1) over Marshall (-6.7) by 3.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Marshall faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Marshall brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Texas State and Marshall?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Marshall won and Marshall covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 18, 2025 Game-time

Clear

75°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity66%
Wind5 mph S
Gusts11 mph
Wind map for Texas State at Marshall: aerial view of Joan C. Edwards Stadium, wind from the S at 5.1 mph, gusting to 10.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 8
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM EDT
Venue
Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Capacity
30,475
Elevation
554 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Texas StateAway MarshallHome
This week1,063 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total4,053 miles2,765 miles
Body clock14:3015:30
Rest6 days7 days

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