DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026
Louisville defeated Miami 24–21 in a nail-biter. Louisville covered by 13.5; Game went Under by 4.5. The market closed at Miami -10.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Miami -8.4, an edge of 2.1 points toward Louisville. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Miami 7.1 points stronger on a neutral field.
Louisville's defense intercepted Miami's Carson Beck four times, the first time he had thrown that many in a college game, and held Miami to only 63 rushing yards on 24 carries, showcasing the ACC's top-ranked defense.
The Cardinals used a fake field goal, multiple players taking snaps, and a reverse that wasn't a reverse to keep Miami off balance, scoring touchdowns on their first two drives for a quick 14-0 lead.
Despite Miami's comeback attempts, Louisville maintained composure, with Miller Moss throwing two TD passes to Chris Bell and running for a score, and the defense sealing the win with a late interception.
Louisville snapped Miami's 10-game home winning streak and earned their first true road win against a Top 10 team (0-18 previously), ending a streak of losing such games by an average of 26.3 points.
Louisville hosts Boston College on Oct. 25, and with this win, they should enter the AP Top 25, bringing momentum and confidence from a statement victory over a top-2 opponent.
Quarterback Carson Beck threw a career-high four interceptions, including a game-sealing pick in the final minute, which directly led to the loss and exposed a vulnerability in the passing game.
Miami managed only 63 rushing yards on 24 carries against Louisville's top-ranked ACC defense, indicating a lack of balance and effectiveness on the ground that could be exploited by future opponents.
Despite trailing 14-0 early and 24-13 in the fourth quarter, Miami fought back to within 24-21 on a quick touchdown and two-point conversion, showing fight but ultimately falling short due to turnovers and defensive lapses.
The loss ended Miami's 10-game home winning streak, with Louisville being the last team to win at Hard Rock Stadium in 2023, highlighting a potential home-field vulnerability.
Miami hosts Stanford on Oct. 25, needing to correct turnover issues and establish a more consistent run game to avoid a second straight loss and stay competitive in the ACC.
At kickoff, conditions at Hard Rock Stadium were Clear, 75°F with winds of 13 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Clear
75°F

| Measure | LouisvilleAway | MiamiHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 903 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Bye week | Bye week |
| Season total | 1,592 miles | 792 miles |
| Body clock | 19:00 | 19:00 |
| Rest | 13 days | 13 days |