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Week 8 •
Notre Dame Stadium

USC24 @FINAL 34Notre Dame

5-1 Big Ten Power rating: 21.5
4-2 Independent Power rating: 25.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ND -10.5
PM Implied
ND -7.6
Blue Chip model
ND -6.7
Edge
-3.8USC
See details
◂ favors USCfavors ND ▸Market: ND -10.5
ND
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ND
no impact
ND
no impact
no impact
2 USC2 ND4 USC4 NDModel: ND -6.7

Betting information

Spread
ND -10.5
Total
60.5
Odds implied score
USC 25.0 – 35.5 ND
Prediction markets
ND 77% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Notre Dame defeated USC 34–24 in a double-digit victory. USC covered by 0.5; Game went Under by 2.5. The market closed at Notre Dame -10.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Notre Dame -6.7 - a gap of 3.8 points toward USC, of which 2.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for USC vs Notre Dame?

Notre Dame

Explosive Running Game

Jeremiyah Love rushed for a career-high 228 yards and a touchdown, showcasing a dominant ground attack that will be key against Boston College's defense.

Special Teams Spark

Jadarian Price's 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown in the third quarter shifted momentum, highlighting Notre Dame's ability to score in non-offensive ways.

Second-Half Defensive Adjustments

After a shaky first half, Notre Dame's defense forced key turnovers (interception by Christian Gray, fumble recovery by Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa) and stopped USC on fourth down, showing resilience that will be crucial in close games.

Quarterback Efficiency

C.J. Carr managed the game effectively, completing 16 of 26 passes for 136 yards and a touchdown, plus a rushing score, providing steady leadership without turnovers.

Bye Week Preparation

Notre Dame has a bye week before facing Boston College, allowing extra time to rest and prepare, which could lead to a sharper performance on the road.

What were the weather conditions for USC vs Notre Dame?

At kickoff, conditions at Notre Dame Stadium were Overcast, 66°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

USC travels 1,819 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

A trip of this length is worth roughly two thirds of a point to the home team on the measured evidence.

Notre Dame won by 10 in a double-digit victory.

USC covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 2.5 points.

How do USC and Notre Dame compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Notre Dame (25.3) over USC (21.5) by 3.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Notre Dame brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on USC and Notre Dame?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Notre Dame won and USC covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 18, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

66°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity47%
Wind7 mph SSE
Gusts12 mph
Wind map for USC at Notre Dame: aerial view of Notre Dame Stadium, wind from the SSE at 6.9 mph, gusting to 12.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 8
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM EDT
Venue
Notre Dame Stadium
Capacity
77,622
Elevation
755 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

USCAway Notre DameHome
This week1,819 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total8,779 miles3,431 miles
Body clock16:3019:30
Rest7 days7 days

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