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Week 8 •
Hancock Whitney Stadium

Arkansas State15 @FINAL 14South Alabama

2-4 Sun Belt Power rating: -9.0
1-5 Sun Belt Power rating: -11.6

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
USA -8.5
PM Implied
USA -5.7
Blue Chip model
ARST -0.2
Edge
-8.7ARST
See details
◂ favors ARSTfavors USA ▸Market: USA -8.5
ARST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
USA
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
5 ARST5 USA10 ARST10 USAModel: ARST -0.2

Betting information

Spread
USA -8.5
Total
57.5
Odds implied score
ARST 24.5 – 33.0 USA
Prediction markets
USA 72% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Arkansas State defeated South Alabama 15–14 in a nail-biter. Arkansas State covered by 9.5; Game went Under by 28.5. The market closed at South Alabama -8.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Arkansas State -0.2 - a gap of 8.7 points toward Arkansas State, of which 8.0 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Arkansas State vs South Alabama?

At kickoff, conditions at Hancock Whitney Stadium were Clear, 71°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Arkansas State travels 383 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Arkansas State won by 1 in a nail-biter.

Arkansas State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 28.5 points.

How do Arkansas State and South Alabama compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Arkansas State (-9.0) over South Alabama (-11.6) by 2.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, South Alabama faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. South Alabama brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Arkansas State and South Alabama?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Arkansas State won and Arkansas State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 14, 2025 Game-time

Clear

71°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity59%
Wind5 mph NNE
Gusts11 mph
Wind map for Arkansas State at South Alabama: aerial view of Hancock Whitney Stadium, wind from the NNE at 5.1 mph, gusting to 10.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 8
Kickoff (local)
06:30 PM CDT
Venue
Hancock Whitney Stadium
Capacity
25,450
Elevation
197 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Arkansas StateAway South AlabamaHome
This week383 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total1,845 miles1,827 miles
Body clock18:3018:30
Rest10 days10 days

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